Section
Geopolitics
31 posts
The Energy Market's False Reprieve
Why a ceasefire changes the near-term mood but not the structural story
The Conviction Gap: What Most Advisor Portfolios Are Missing at the Core
Most advisor portfolios mistake active weight for manager conviction. Franklin Templeton's five-factor core equity suite fixes that, starting with a proprietary conviction signal that extracts what managers actually believe.
Crude awakening: The Iran conflict’s aftereffects will linger long after it’s over
Raymond James Senior Investment Strategist Pavel Molchanov examines the longer-term ripple effects of the US-Iran conflict
Ninepoint Partners’ Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Repricing the Future
A new regime has arrived. The consensus that began 2026 — inflation drifting back to target, central banks…
The Game Theory Behind Taiwan
by Frank Holmes, CEO, CIO, U.S. Global Investors I’ve long been a student of game theory, the branch…
Comfortably Numb: Why Investors Are Misreading the Stagflation Signal
Man Group's Henry Neville maps seven episodes across 150 years to reveal what actually works — and why 45 years of amnesia may be the greatest risk of all
Why Energy-Driven Inflation Has the Fed Watching Expectations, Not Just Prices
By Sam Millette, Director of Fixed Income at Commonwealth Financial Network For the Federal Reserve (Fed), the real…
Above the Noise: FOMO isn’t about ignoring risk
by Brian Levitt Chief Global Market Strategist and Head of Strategy & Insights, Invesco Key takeaways The “fear…
Macro Moments Weekly: Shock, suspense and interest rates
by Michael Browne, Global Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute There are two kinds of shocks in films. The…
Hormuz: Why Markets Are Shrugging Off The Oil Shock
by Lance Roberts, RIA As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since February 28.…
The Clock Underground
Iran's Oil Fields Face a Damage Threshold That No Ceasefire Can Reverse
Modest Government Spending Shrinkage
by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, & Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist, First Trust Portfolios The federal government is…
Quick Thoughts: A helpful ceasefire, but a fragile pause
The US-Iran ceasefire has lifted markets; however, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover explains why this looks more like a relief rally rather than a definitive resolution. He also discusses where he sees possible opportunities ahead.
KKR's McVey: Muddle Through, Not Meltdown — But Don't Get Comfortable
Henry McVey and KKR's Global Macro team have updated their U.S. forecasts in response to the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruption, and compounding macro crosscurrents. The base case is not catastrophe — but the distribution of outcomes has widened, traditional diversification is breaking down, and markets may be materially underpricing the risks ahead.
Helium Is Elementary
A light element has a heavy industrial need.
S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.
by Lance Roberts, RIA Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction…