Section
Geopolitics
28 posts
The Game Theory Behind Taiwan
by Frank Holmes, CEO, CIO, U.S. Global Investors I’ve long been a student of game theory, the branch…
Comfortably Numb: Why Investors Are Misreading the Stagflation Signal
Man Group's Henry Neville maps seven episodes across 150 years to reveal what actually works — and why 45 years of amnesia may be the greatest risk of all
Why Energy-Driven Inflation Has the Fed Watching Expectations, Not Just Prices
By Sam Millette, Director of Fixed Income at Commonwealth Financial Network For the Federal Reserve (Fed), the real…
Above the Noise: FOMO isn’t about ignoring risk
by Brian Levitt Chief Global Market Strategist and Head of Strategy & Insights, Invesco Key takeaways The “fear…
Macro Moments Weekly: Shock, suspense and interest rates
by Michael Browne, Global Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute There are two kinds of shocks in films. The…
The Case for Core International Equity Exposure
Michael Greenberg, Head of Americas Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton explains why international equities are no longer a tactical side bet, but a structural core allocation—and how disciplined portfolio construction is becoming the real source of durability
Hormuz: Why Markets Are Shrugging Off The Oil Shock
by Lance Roberts, RIA As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since February 28.…
The Clock Underground
Iran's Oil Fields Face a Damage Threshold That No Ceasefire Can Reverse
Modest Government Spending Shrinkage
by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, & Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist, First Trust Portfolios The federal government is…
Quick Thoughts: A helpful ceasefire, but a fragile pause
The US-Iran ceasefire has lifted markets; however, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover explains why this looks more like a relief rally rather than a definitive resolution. He also discusses where he sees possible opportunities ahead.
KKR's McVey: Muddle Through, Not Meltdown — But Don't Get Comfortable
Henry McVey and KKR's Global Macro team have updated their U.S. forecasts in response to the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruption, and compounding macro crosscurrents. The base case is not catastrophe — but the distribution of outcomes has widened, traditional diversification is breaking down, and markets may be materially underpricing the risks ahead.
Helium Is Elementary
A light element has a heavy industrial need.
S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.
by Lance Roberts, RIA Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction…
Don't Trade the Headlines. Watch These Two Things Instead
Forward-looking analysis of the week's most important investment themes
The Worst-Case Scenario is Off the Table, Bringing Global Relief
by Hubert Marleau, Market Economist, Palos Management Under condemnation from the American people, allies, and even the Pope,…
Stephen Dover: Iran ceasefire—A relief rally, not an all-clear
by Stephen Dover, CFA, Chief Market Strategist and Head of Franklin Templeton Institute at Franklin Templeton US President…