When Chinese President Xi Jinping tells Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez that "the international order is crumbling into disarray," he is not merely venting. He is naming the organizing principle behind one of the most consequential shifts in the global gold market. In a new S&P Global special report, China's gold chase to gain pace in an uncertain world1, Charles Chang, Annie Ao, Richard Creed, Donald Marleau, Omega Collocott, Melody Peng, and Paul Manalo argue that Beijing's approach to gold is comprehensive, deliberate, and durable. This is not a gold grab. It is statecraft.
From Financial Asset to Strategic Cornerstone
The report's central observation is that China has formally designated gold a strategic mineral critical to national security, elevating it from a financial asset to a strategic cornerstone of policy. Nine top government departments issued the 2025 Plan codifying that shift, and the authors expect it to drive a wide range of actions: building official holdings, promoting yuan-based gold trading, and supporting exploration and production globally.
To be clear, this is the latest chapter in a long arc. China privatized its gold market in 2004, became the world's largest producer in 2007, and became the largest consumer in 2013, where it has since dwarfed rivals. Chinese consumption now runs roughly five times the US and nearly double all other emerging markets combined (see Figure 3 of the report). The lesson of that history is simple: when Beijing organizes policy around gold, significant outcomes follow.
The Catch-Up Imperative
Here is the tension the report surfaces. Despite the headlines, China's gold holdings have grown more slowly and remain smaller than most countries as a share of official reserves, ranking only sixth in the world. Since 2022, gold's share of China's official reserves rose to just 6.7 percent, well below the medians for Africa, emerging Asia-Pacific, and developed markets. At $324 billion, China's reserves are less than a third of the US total. Industry voices inside China call this a mismatch, and the authors conclude that the gap itself will support sentiment for further build-up, through purchases or production. The PBOC's buying sprees, they note, tend to cluster around price downturns and geopolitical shocks. Reserves grew by over 40 tonnes in the first half of 2026, more than double the same period a year earlier.
The Yellow BRICS Road
The most forward-looking element is the Gold Road initiative. In 2025, China opened its first offshore gold vault in Hong Kong, a model for an envisaged global network supporting yuan-based gold trading and gold-backed yuan conversion outside the US dollar. Hong Kong plans to expand storage capacity tenfold to over 2,000 tonnes within three years, and future vault locations reportedly include Singapore, Dubai, Riyadh, and Moscow. The authors are honest about the uncertainty here: how future vaults will be built, operated, and received in partner countries remains unclear. But the direction of travel is not.
Miners on a Mission
The divergence between Chinese miners and their global peers is stark. Global production has stagnated despite surging prices, weighed down by mine lead times that now average 17.5 years from discovery to production, nearly double the pace of two decades ago, and by scar tissue from the 2013-2015 downturn that crushed the shares of Newmont, Barrick, and Gold Fields. Chinese miners, by contrast, operate according to national priorities as well as economics. Zijin and Shandong Gold have scaled acquisitions into the billions across Africa, Latin America, and Asia, and overseas production by top Chinese miners surged 25 percent in 2025 while domestic output rose just 1 percent. The authors expect this expansion to proceed without weakening credit profiles, supported by strong balance sheets and a string of supergiant domestic discoveries.
Five Key Takeaways for Advisors and Investors
- China's gold policy is now a security policy. Economic debates about the merits of gold reserves will be outranked by strategic objectives, making demand more persistent and less price-sensitive.
- The reserve gap is the demand floor. Sixth place in official holdings, against first place in production and consumption, creates a structural bid beneath the market.
- Central bank buying is a developing-world phenomenon, not just a Chinese one. Tonnage growth since 2022 is concentrated in emerging markets while developed countries stand pat.
- Supply cannot respond quickly. Seventeen-year lead times mean today's prices cannot summon tomorrow's ounces, a durable tailwind for the metal.
- Watch the Gold Road. A yuan-based gold trading and custody network is early-stage, but it is a genuine, slow-building challenge to dollar-centric bullion infrastructure.
In an uncertain world, the report suggests, one certainty stands out: China's footprint in gold is set to grow.
Footnote:
1 Chang, Charles, et al. "China's Gold Chase to Gain Pace in an Uncertain World." S&P Global, 25 Aug. 2026, https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/china-gold-demand-uncertain-world.
