Over six consecutive weekly Belski Briefs spanning August 10 through September 14, 2026, Brian Belski and the Humilis Investment Strategies team have articulated one thesis with precision: earnings are the signal, and everything else is noise. Record highs, rising Treasury yields, a new Federal Reserve chair, and seasonal volatility have each taken turns as the dominant concern. The team's response, each time, has been the same.
The Count: 97% Reported, 86% Beat
By the August 31 brief, with 97% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 results, the numbers are decisive. The blended earnings growth rate has reached 52.0%. Even after removing the outsized investment gains from Alphabet and Amazon, earnings grew 33.8%. The "Other 493" delivered growth of 31.8%, described by the team as "their strongest result since the fourth quarter of 2021."⁴ Ten of eleven sectors contributed positive results. Revenue growth for the quarter stands at 15%, which the team identifies as "the highest rate since the fourth quarter of 2021, with all 11 sectors reporting year-over-year growth."¹ Their point is structural: companies are generating stronger sales "rather than relying solely on cost cutting or financial engineering to increase their earnings."¹
The breadth is as important as the headline. In January, consensus expected full-year 2026 earnings growth of 14.9%. By mid-August, that estimate had moved to 30.0%, and the forward P/E ratio had fallen from 22.2x at the start of the year to 20.0x.² By September 14, it had compressed further to 19.1x, with forward twelve-month estimates up 8.3% since June 30 while the index itself gained only 1.2%.⁶ "The market is at record highs," the team writes, "but it has become cheaper as earnings have grown into valuations."²
The Noise Has Not Changed the Outlook
The August 24 brief addresses the week's loudest concern directly. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.25%, with the 10-year approaching 4.75%. The team acknowledges the move is worth monitoring, "particularly as markets adjust to a new Federal Reserve chair and a different style of communication," but holds its position: "the market may be placing too much emphasis on the recent move in yields, particularly as the underlying fundamental outlook remains strong."³
The September 8 brief frames what comes next. With Q3 earnings season still weeks away, the team anticipates that economic data and Fed communications will dominate. "One strong or weaker data point can quickly change expectations for interest rates and cause an outsized market reaction."⁵ This is not a warning to reduce exposure. It is an instruction on how to interpret what is coming: "investors should not allow a noisy few weeks to overshadow the strength underneath the surface."⁵
The Arrival: Q3 Sets the Year
The forward projections have been steadily revised upward. Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth is now estimated at 28.7%, up from 26.6% at the start of the quarter. Full-year 2026 growth is projected at 31.6%. All eleven sectors are expected to post positive year-over-year results.⁶ The team's conclusion across every brief is consistent: "as long as earnings continue their trend, we would view meaningful weakness as an opportunity rather than a reason to become more negative."⁵ The market is expected to "finish the year above current levels."⁴
The current position is a constructive, earnings-driven bull market with a 19.1x forward P/E and an upward-revising growth trajectory.⁶ The trigger that would change the team's view is not a yield spike or a volatile September. It is a sustained deterioration in earnings estimates, which has not materialized.
Five Takeaways for Advisors and Investors
- Q3 consensus is 28.7% earnings growth. If results beat estimates as they did in Q1 and Q2, expect further upward revisions to the 31.6% full-year number. Watch for estimate movement as the reporting window opens.⁶
- The forward P/E is now 19.1x, down from 22.2x in January. Any autumn pullback that compresses it toward 18x meets Belski's own definition of a buying opportunity.²⁶
- Revenue growth of 15% across all eleven sectors is the confirmation number. Earnings are not a financial engineering story this cycle.¹
- Communication Services (+21.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (+18.4%) show the highest EPS revisions since June 30. Advisors should audit whether sector exposures reflect where the estimate momentum is.⁵
- The thesis holds until earnings estimates break. Rate headlines and Fed commentary are not the signal. The next earnings season is.³⁵
Footnotes:
1 Belski, Brian G., et al. "Earnings Continue to Push the Market Forward." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 10 Aug. 2026, https://humilisinv.com/belski-briefs/.
2 Belski, Brian G., et al. "Record Highs Are Not a Reason to Sell." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 17 Aug. 2026, https://humilisinv.com/belski-briefs/.
3 Belski, Brian G., et al. "Separating the Noise from the Signal." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 24 Aug. 2026, https://humilisinv.com/belski-briefs/.
4 Belski, Brian G., et al. "Earnings Remain the Driving Force." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 31 Aug. 2026, https://humilisinv.com/belski-briefs/.
5 Belski, Brian G., et al. "A Lack of Catalysts Could Invite Volatility." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 8 Sept. 2026, https://humilisinv.com/belski-briefs/.
6 Belski, Brian G., et al. "The Market Continues to Grow Into Its Valuation." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 14 Sept. 2026, https://humilisinv.com/belski-briefs/.
