Listen on The Move
The seasonal clock is ticking — and if history is any guide, the market's most dangerous months are still ahead.
In this episode of Insight Is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Brooke Thackray, Research Analyst at Global X, and author of the long-running Thackray Newsletter, for a wide-ranging conversation about what the seasonal calendar is telling us right now — and why the market's gravity-defying melt-up may be masking a set of risks that most investors aren't pricing in.
From the FOMO-fuelled rally that erased April's war-driven selloff, to the eerie parallels between today's AI trade and the late-1990s internet bubble, Brooke and Pierre explore the architecture of the current market: who's driving it, what's being ignored, and where the seasonal patterns are pointing for the second half of 2026.
The conversation covers the narrowing breadth behind the S&P 500's new highs, the invisible commodity bottlenecks quietly threatening semiconductor production, and the emerging rotation opportunities in gold, Canadian banks, and resource sectors that few investors are discussing. Whether you're managing a portfolio, planning for retirement, or simply trying to make sense of a market that seems to shrug off every risk, this episode offers a grounded, historically-informed perspective on what comes next — and when.
Episode Chapters
0:00 — Introduction: Markets don't move in straight lines, but they do move in patterns
1:45 — SpaceX IPO day, the AI narrative, and the anatomy of a melt-up
4:30 — How seasonal patterns set up April's explosive rally — and what was missed
6:00 — The invisible supply shock: helium, tungsten hexafluoride, and semiconductor risk
8:00 — Sell in May didn't work — why FOMO overrides seasonality in the short term
10:00 — Ten stocks driving the index: what market narrowness really signals
13:00 — Tracking money flows: how to tell if investors are rotating or leaving entirely
15:00 — The fragility of a narrow market and what historically breaks melt-ups
21:00 — Cisco, Nortel, and One Cent Cisco: the late-90s earnings playbook and its modern echo
24:00 — Utilities, nuclear, data center buildout, and the Gartner hype cycle applied to AI
32:00 — The dead zone: August–September as the two weakest months on the seasonal calendar
33:00 — Semiconductors, South Korea, NVIDIA earnings, and what could flip the trade
38:00 — Supply chain lessons from COVID: why shortages don't heal with a flick of a switch
41:00 — Uranium, silver, copper: the commodity super-cycle quietly building beneath the AI wave
45:00 — Gold, Canadian banks, and healthcare: where seasonal inflection points are setting up now
50:00 — Why gold doesn't trade on geopolitical risk — and what it actually trades on
53:00 — The Fed's stealth QE, Kevin Warsh's debut, stagflation risk, and the M2 expansion
57:00 — Canadian banks: why foreign investors are buying what domestic investors are ignoring
1:01:00 — HAC ETF: how the Global X Seasonal Rotation Fund puts these principles to work
More
Brooke Thackray on Linkedin
Brooke Thackray;s Monthly Newsletter
Global X Seasonal Rotation ETF - HAC (TSX)
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