Vialoux's Technical Talk - Sept. 23, 2014

September 23, 2014

3 minute read

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday September 23^rd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 7 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures were responding to a lower than expected Eurozone PMI report.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged following release of July Canadian Retail Sales. Consensus was an increase of 0.5% versus a gain of 1.2% in June. Actual was a decline of 0.1%.

JP Morgan launched coverage on the U.S. refining industry. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Phillips 66 (PSX) were initiated with an Overweight rating. Chevron, Tesoro and Valero were initiated with a Neutral rating.

Blackberry (BB $12.05 Cdn.) is expected to open lower after Cormark downgraded the stock from Speculative Buy to Market Perform. Target is $11.50.

Cameco (CCO $20.58 Cdn.) is expected to open lower after Bank of America/Merrill downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. Target is $21.

Clorox dropped $1.13 to $96.10 after B.Riley and Citgroup downgraded the stock.

EquityClock.com’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2014/09/23/stock-market-outlook-for-september-23-2014/

Interesting Charts

The downdraft in world equity markets yesterday was triggered by weakness in Chinese equities and related funds and ETFs.

Economic sensitive equities and related ETFs led the decline in U.S. markets.

The VIX Index spiked again. ‘Tis the season!

Selling has been much more intense in Canadian equity markets. The TSX Index already is down 3.5% from its high on September 3^rd. Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average already have plunged to 28.81%. Although deeply oversold, signs of a bottom have yet to surface.

StockTwits released yesterday @equityclock

Technicals for S&P stocks to 10:30: Bearish. 3 stocks break resistance: $CL, $CLX, $SIAL. 9 stocks break support: $AZO, $DLPH, $SWY, $APC, $CAM, $EQT, $NOV, $TEL, $CLF.

Cdn. & U.S. energy stocks notable support breakers this morning: $APC, $CAM, $EQT, $NOV, $CNQ.CA, $HSE.CA.

‘Tis the season for weakness in Cdn. energy stocks! 3 broke support this morning: $CNQ.CA, $HSE.CA, $SU.TO.

Nickel prices ($JJN) break support on China economic concerns.

Steel stocks and related ETFs ($SLX) are responding to China economic concerns. ‘Tis the season!

Brazil iShares ($EWZ) breaks support on national election concerns. Top two candidates lean left.

Technicals for Emerging Markets continue to deteriorate. $EEM breaks support.

Technical Action by Individual Equities

By the close yesterday, 19 S&P 500 stocks broke support and five stocks broke resistance.

Four TSX 60 stocks broke support and none broke resistance.

Tech Talk/Horizons’ Weekly Sector Technical Review

Following is a link:

http://www.horizonsetfs.com/campaigns/TechnicalReport/index.html

Monitored Technical/Seasonal Trade Ideas

A security must have a Technical Score of 1.5 – 3.0 to be on this list.

Green: Increased Technical Score

Red: Reduced Technical Score

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

FDX Relative to the S&P 500

FDX Relative to the Sector

Keith Richards’ Blog

Following is a link:

www.smartbounce.ca

FP Trading Desk Headline:

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Loonie could fall to 0.82 against the greenback early next year”. Following is a link:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/09/22/loonie-could-fall-to-0-82-against-the-greenback-early-next-year-cibc/

Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.

Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not held personally or in HAC.

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC September 22^nd 2014

Author

Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com

Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors, commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. All of the views expressed herein are his personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios. Daily reports are available at http://www.timingthemarket.ca.