Listen on The Move
The anonymous analyst who predicted Carney's election and energy pivot, China's solar collapse, and the Iran oil bluff — before anyone else was even asking the question — pulls back the curtain on exactly how he thinks.
About This Episode
Pierre Daillie sits down with Doomberg, the anonymous author behind one of Substack's most widely read energy and finance publications, for a wide-ranging conversation about how to think clearly in a world saturated with noise, spin, and bad incentives. Whether you follow markets, care about where energy comes from, or simply want to understand the forces quietly reshaping the global economy, this episode is essential listening.
Doomberg opens by explaining the difference between linear and lateral thinkers — and why the ability to explore an idea you don't necessarily believe is the secret behind every major call his team has made. From predicting Mark Carney's pipeline pivot months before it happened to flagging China's solar pullback before installations fell nearly eighty percent year over year, each call came from the same discipline: build a mental model, use it to make predictions, and throw it out the moment it stops working.
The conversation then unpacks the hidden logic of global energy — why oil, gas, and coal are slowly converging toward the same price when measured by what they can actually do, and how China has spent decades quietly positioning itself to win an energy war it never officially declared. The Iran conflict, far from being a Middle East story, turns out to be a proxy move in a much larger contest over who controls the fuel that powers the modern world.
The final act connects energy to artificial intelligence in a way most people haven't considered. Every AI model, every data center, every query runs on electricity — and the race to build that infrastructure is running headlong into permitting walls, protest movements, and a regulatory system never designed for this scale. Doomberg's axiom is simple and radical: the human drive toward infinite compute will sweep every obstacle aside. The question is how fast, and who profits from what gets built along the way.
Chapters
00:00 — Introduction: the calls nobody else made
03:00 — Linear vs. lateral thinking: how Doomberg builds mental models
07:00 — The Carney call: predicting Canada's energy pivot
17:00 — On anonymity, intellectual honesty, and publishing what you believe
33:00 — Iran, propaganda, and reading news from every side
39:00 — Why all energy sources are converging toward the same price
48:00 — China's master energy strategy: coal, solar, EVs, and oil stockpiles
54:00 — How electricity grids actually work and why it matters
59:00 — Why sanctions rarely work against strong countries
01:10:00 — The Iran war as a move against China's energy supply
01:15:00 — AI's electricity problem and the Project Kilby stress test
01:20:00 — The human endeavor is infinite compute
More...
Doomberg (Substack)
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