Listen on The Move
When cash is outranking U.S. equities and gold sells off when it's supposed to rally, the advisors holding up aren't reacting faster — they're working from a better framework.
In this episode of Raise Your Average, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Paul Kornfeld, Portfolio Manager and Director of Technology Services at SIA Wealth Management, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the firm's rules-based relative strength system is signalling right now — and why those signals have been readable for over a year. Paul walks through SIA's point-and-figure methodology, explaining how millions of pairwise asset comparisons cut through geopolitical noise and behavioural bias to reveal where money is actually flowing.
From the Canada-vs.-U.S. rotation that started in April 2024, to the semiconductor-vs.-software divergence that flagged the SaaS repricing before most advisors saw it coming, to a candid story about a Calgary advisor group with zero energy exposure in an oil boom — this episode is a masterclass in process-driven investing. Paul and Pierre also look ahead to the durable themes likely to define the next 12–18 months: real assets over financial assets, international over U.S. broad indices, AI infrastructure over AI software, and the looming wildcard of North American trade renegotiation in Q3.
⏱ Chapters
- 00:00 — Introduction: Markets whipsawing, cash beating U.S. equities
- 01:00 — Welcome Paul Kornfeld: Real rotation or relief rally?
- 01:40 — What advisors are asking right now
- 04:36 — SIA's methodology: Relative strength, point-and-figure, opportunity cost
- 07:12 — The goal is alignment, not prediction
- 12:32 — Risk management: The equity action call and the traffic-light model
- 14:01 — Asset class rankings: Cash above U.S. equity, commodities pulling back
- 15:39 — The rotation that started April 2024: International overtakes U.S.
- 17:51 — One takeaway: Reevaluate your U.S. equity weight vs. international
- 21:48 — Gold's anatomy: The longest gold rally Paul has seen
- 29:14 — Tactical sleeves: How advisors can outsource the hard calls
- 31:51 — Canada vs. U.S. sector breakdown: Energy, financials, IT divergence
- 33:44 — Software vs. semiconductors: The SaaS reckoning since ChatGPT
- 40:02 — Data infrastructure: The durable AI theme the market keeps pricing in
- 40:38 — Point-and-figure in action: Salesforce sell signal, CSCO buy signal
- 44:47 — S&P 100 positioning: Semis dominate the top five right now
- 50:06 — Keep politics out of your investing
- 50:56 — TSX60: Energy, mining, chemicals — and the Kinross success story
- 54:13 — The Calgary story: Zero energy exposure in an oil boom
- 56:57 — Buying insurance vs. making a call: Aligning without predicting
- 59:49 — U.S. equities at 65% of global market cap: Is the world overweight?
- 01:03:39 — Durable signals for the next 12–18 months
- 01:05:59 — Real assets, domestic production, AI infrastructure as core themes
- 01:07:16 — Q3 trade negotiations: The biggest wildcard for positioning
- 01:08:47 — Biggest surprise in 12 months: AI disruption, faster than anyone expects
- 01:14:28 — Where to find SIA Wealth and SICharts
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Find SIA Wealth Management: siawealth.com | sicharts.com
