Tech Talk for Monday February 13th 2023

da bull and and a bear

The Bottom Line

Focus this week is release of a series of U.S. January economic reports: CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Their results will have a heavy weight on likely response by the FOMC on its policy for the Fed Fund Rate.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies

Analysts increased fourth quarter earnings and revenue estimates slightly from our last report on February 6th. According to www.factset.com fourth quarter earnings are expected to decrease 4.9% (versus previous decrease of 5.3%) but revenues are expected to increase 4.6% (versus previous increase of 4.3%). For all of 2022 earnings are expected to increase 4.2% and revenues are expected to increase 10.6%.

Preliminary estimates for 2023 continue to move lower. According to www.factset.com first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 5.1% (versus previous decrease of 4.2%) but revenues are expected to increase 1.9% (versus previous increase of 2.0%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 3.3% (versus previous decrease at 2.9%) and revenues are expected to decrease 0.1%. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.4% and revenues are expected to increase 1.3% (versus previous increase of 1.4%). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 10.1% (versus previous increase of 10.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 3.7% (versus previous increase of 4.0%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 2.5% (versus previous increase of 3.0%) and revenues are expected to increase 2.4% (versus previous increase of 2.5%)

Economic News This Week

January Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 6.2% versus a gain of 6.5% in December. Excluding food and energy sales, January Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January core CPI is expected to increase 5.5% versus a gain of 5.7% in December.

January Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 1.5% versus a drop of 1.1% in December. Excluding auto sales, January Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.7% versus a drop of 1.1% in December.

February Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to drop 20.00 versus a drop of 32.90 in January.

January Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 79.1 from 78.8 in December. January Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.5% versus a drop of 0.7% in December.

December Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in November.

January Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a drop of 0.5% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Producer Price Index is expected to increase 5.4% versus a gain of 6.2% in December. Excluding food and energy prices, January PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January core PPI is expected to increase 4.9% versus a gain of 5.5% in December.

February Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop 6.7 versus a drop of 8.9 in January.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Sixty nine percent of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date. Another 61 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week (including two Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: Coca Cola and Cisco).

Another nine TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results.

Traderā€™s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Feb.10th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Feb.10th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Feb.10th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

CATA Presentation

Next presentation by the Canadian Association for Technical Analysis is offered at 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday February 14th. Presenter is Don Vialoux. Everyone is welcome. Not a member of CATA? More information is available at https://canadianata.ca/

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā  (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā  (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā  (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score ā€“2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: ā€“1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: ā€“1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

Changes Last Week

Links offered by valued providers

Mark Leibovitā€™s weekly column

Copper, Cobalt, Rare Earths, Stock Markets ā€“ HoweStreet

What Might Outperform In A New Wave Of Inflation? | Mish Schneider | Your Daily Five

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WsIioybrNs

Michael Campbellā€™s Money Talks for February 11th

Michael Campbellā€™s MoneyTalks ā€“ Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

David Keller discusses three concerning signs for stocks

Three Concerning Signs for Stocks | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

Tom McClellan notes ā€œGolden Cross carries some little known magicā€

Golden Cross Carries Some Little-Known Magic | Top Advisors Corner | StockCharts.com

Dow Over NASDAQ as Value Rises | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar

Dow Over Nasdaq as Value Rises | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (02.10.23) ā€“ YouTube

Bob Hoyeā€™s Weekly Comment

Not Enough Copper for EV Demand, Lithium, Coal ā€“ HoweStreet

Josef Schachter explains ā€œWhy Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrelā€

Why Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrel ā€“ HoweStreet

Victor Adairā€™s Trading Desk Notes For February 11, 2023

Trading Desk Notes For February 11, 2023 ā€“ HoweStreet

Ready for the Pullback | TG Watkins | Moxie Indicator Minutes (02.10.23)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaumVlFBf9Y

Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com discusses a turnaround opportunity

Turnaround Just Getting Started After 2,900% Surge ā€“ Uncommon Sense Investor

Technical Scoop by David Chapman and www.enrichedinvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Surprising-bullishness-notorious-February-eery-gold-Dollar-break-blockbuster-jobs-soaring-energy.pdf

10 Stocks for a Recession | Morningstar

The Stock Market Rally Is About to Crumble, According to Goldman Sachs (businessinsider.com)

Technical Notes from Friday

Exxon Mobil $XOM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $117.78 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

American Tower $AMT an S&P 100 stock moved below $212.64 completing a double top pattern.

Agnico-Eagle Mines $AEM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$68.26 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Magna International $MG.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below intermediate support at Cdn$78.48 and Cdn73.64 following released of lower than consensus fourth quarter results.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 3.20 on Friday, but dropped 4.00 last week to 65.60. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.

The long term Barometer added 2.40 on Friday, but dropped 2.40 last week to 70.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 0.85 on Friday, but dropped 5.08 last week to 62.29. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but dropped 4.23 last week. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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