by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
PRESS REPORTS YESTERDAY indicating that key Ukrainian cities are about to fall missed the point: Vladimir Putin is losing this war.
AN EXTRAORDINARY ARTICLE in this morning’s New York Times reports that several thousands Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, as their unclaimed bodies pile up on the side of roads. This has had a chilling impact on Russian soldiers, who were told that they would be greeted as heroes.
RUSSIAN CONVOYS headed for Kyiv today appear to have stalled, as a lack of food and fuel persists. As Ukrainian resistance surges, bodies of slain Russians lie
abandoned, the Times reports. There are credible reports that some troops have laid down their weapons and surrendered.
EVEN IF RUSSIAN TANKS ENTER KYIV soon, what will happen when the occupants leave their vehicles? They will face a furious guerrilla war; the well-armed Ukrainians know the alleys and neighborhoods of Kyiv, and will contest every block.
AS THOUSANDS OF RUSSIAN CORPSES AND WOUNDED return to Moscow and other cities, protests are certain to increase. Putin’s ludicrous claim that his troops are conducting a limited military operation may persist in the state-owned press, but very few Russians get their information from that source; they know what’s happening via the internet.
RUSSIAN ATHLETES — hockey and tennis and soccer stars in the West — have enormous respect from Russian fans, and these celebrities will tell friends and family back home that their country has become a global pariah, concealing the extent of war crimes and fatalities.
SO PUTIN NOW FACES GROWING DISSENT as a near-certain economic Depression looms in Russia, with thousands of funerals in coming weeks as his troops bog down in Ukraine. Putin is losing this war; many of the oligarchs and generals and sports stars know this — and they’re about to become a major wild card in this grim narrative.
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STATE OF THE UNION: These annual affairs are usually forgotten within days, but Joe Biden’s call for unity on Ukraine may resonate for weeks; it’s a rare issue that has united the nation.
OTHERWISE, IT WAS AN ADEQUATE SPEECH, well delivered and quite newsworthy: Build Back Better has stalled; we’ve turned the corner on Covid; the progressive agenda was barely mentioned; there’s no quick cure for inflation; defund the police is totally dead; the Jan. 6 riot has faded as an issue; Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds offered a preview of the GOP’s election messaging, potentially
devastating for Democrats.
A HUGE PERCENTAGE of the politicians — and ordinary voters — are outraged; they want to stop the slaughter of innocent civilians in Ukraine. Biden wisely led his
speech with this issue, knowing that Americans want him to do more to challenge the war criminal Putin.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
