Dissent Over Pelosi and Schumer Grows Among Democrats on Capitol Hill

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

THE MAIN EVENT obviously is the still-undecided presidential election, but on Capitol Hill the big story is the growing frustration among Democrats after their lame performance on Tuesday night. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are the targets.

FIRST, THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE: There’s still a narrow path for Donald Trump to win re-election, but voting trends in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona don’t look good for him. Joe Biden is likely to become president, but that’s not certain.

PLAYING WITH FIRE: Trump and allies like Rudy Giuliani will argue that there’s voter fraud; they may stir up protests that could get out of control. It could take weeks before recounts and legal challenges are resolved, as anger grows on the right and the left.

AT SOME POINT, THE NATION’S ESTABLISHMENT ELITE — generals, business leaders and top Republicans on Capitol Hill — may have to urge President Trump to drop the legal challenges and accept the inevitable. But it won’t be easy to get to that point; he and his allies believe the election is being stolen.

WE WROTE, RELUCTANTLY, LAST WEEK that the threat of violence is in the air, and yesterday’s protests at ballot counting centers may be the precursor of unrest. A resolution of this election may not be imminent, as tension mounts.
* * * * *
IN THE MEANTIME, SHOCK WAVES are still reverberating on Capitol Hill, where Democrats lost several seats in the House — with Republicans apparently maintaining control of the Senate. These developments were not expected by the pathetically inept polltakers.

PREDICTABLY, THERE ARE TWO NARRATIVES from reeling Democrats: Progressives say the party’s agenda was too timid; moderates say that their constituents have no stomach for socialism. Both factions agree on one point: fresh leadership is needed.

IT’S TIME FOR NANCY PELOSI TO GO: She couldn’t take “yes” on a stimulus package, and she was an albatross in election battles that saw several veteran Democrats defeated. She’s 80 and wants one more term, but we anticipate a vigorous challenge to her in coming weeks.

CHUCK SCHUMER, WHO TURNS 70 LATER THIS MONTH, faces an intriguing race for for his New York Senate seat in 2022, with Socialist firebrand Alexandria Ocasio Cortez a likely challenger. Schumer had expected to be Senate Majority Leader next year, but the Democrats lost at least two key races on Tuesday night. The wily obstructionist, Mitch McConnell, will continue to rule the Senate.

IF JOE BIDEN BECOMES PRESIDENT, he will be thwarted repeatedly by McConnell, who favors only a modest stimulus bill ($1.5 trillion is the upper limit). And McConnell has no desire for tax hikes, which may pass in the House — only to die in the Senate.

BOTTOM LINE: Democrats we talked with yesterday were thrilled at the prospect of getting rid of Trump, but they acknowledge that their disastrous congressional elections will thwart the party for at least two more years. Republicans we talked with didn’t mourn Trump’s likely defeat; after all, they will largely control the agenda.

 

 


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.

Total
0
Shares
Previous Article

Tech Talk for Thursday November 5th 2020

Next Article

Catalent Inc. - (CTLT) - November 5, 2020

Related Posts
Subscribe to AdvisorAnalyst.com notifications
Watch. Listen. Read. Raise your average.