by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
September 29, 2020
SUPPOSE, TO BE CHARITABLE, that Donald Trump’s tax returns were simply the work of clever lawyers and accountants who exploited the many loopholes in the IRS code. Suppose that Trump is not a good businessman but that his losses and deductions are not illegal.
THAT STILL LEAVES A SMOKING GUN that will have to be addressed — to whom does Trump apparently owe $400 million? That was the question that had both parties buzzing in Washington yesterday.
THE NATION SURELY DOESN’T WANT TO GO THROUGH another impeachment proceeding, but we talked with sources yesterday who believe the national security risks from Trump’s loans — and the apparent concealment of those loans — are so blatant that if he wins re-election, he may have to face still another Senate trial — this time, perhaps, with a Democrat-controlled Senate.
NATIONAL SECURITY OFFICIALS would revoke the security clearance of anyone who attempted to conceal massive debts to a foreign power. These same officials, including Trump’s former National Security Director Dan Coats, have long suspected that ties between Trump and Russian oligarchs have influenced Trump’s behavior toward Vladimir Putin.
AS ONE SOURCE TOLD US YESTERDAY, “Trump’s avoidance of taxes eventually will lead to huge penalties, which happens all the time. But if his enormous debts have led him to Russia or Saudi Arabia or Turkey for emergency assistance, that would be intolerable.”
IN OUR OPINION, THE NEW YORK TIMES article was a blatant attempt to influence the election, but it makes a compelling case that Trump needs a massive infusion of cash in the coming years to avoid still another bankruptcy; most of his businesses are hemorrhaging.
PERHAPS THERE’S A GOOD EXPLANATION for the source of Trump’s loans; perhaps his ties with Deutsche Bank and other financial institutions produced financial assistance. But until there’s a thorough investigation, a suspicion will persist that Trump’s debts make him a national security risk.
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THE STAKES TONIGHT: Huge TV ratings are expected as Trump and Biden debate tonight, with more pressure on Trump, who clearly trails with the election just five weeks away. It strikes us that Biden simply has to show good energy and avoid gaffes, and he should maintain his lead.
TRUMP WILL GO FOR THE JUGULAR, with Hunter Biden’s shady business dealings a likely target. Has Trump prepared sufficiently? Has Biden over-prepared? We’ll find out. For the financial markets, which like divided government, a decent Biden performance could revive concerns about a “Blue Wave.”
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
