Vialoux's Technical Talk: April 14, 2014

Economic News This Week

March Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on
Monday are expected to increase 1.0% versus a gain of 0.3% in
February. Excluding Auto Sales March Retail Sales are
expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.3% in February.

February Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM
EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.6% versus a gain of
0.4% in January

March Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on
Tuesday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in
February. Excluding Food and Energy, March Consumer
Prices are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in
February.

The April Empire Manufacturing Index to be released at
8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to 7.5 from 5.6
in March

March Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on
Wednesday are expected to increase to 955,000 from 907,000 in
February.

March Canadian Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM
EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of
0.8% in February.

March Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM
EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of
0.6% in February. March Capacity Utilization is expected
to improve to 78.8 from 78.4 in February.

The Fed Beige Book for April is released at 2:00 PM EDT
on Wednesday.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM
EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 312,000 from
300,000 last week.

The April Philly Fed Manufacturing Index to be released
at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to decrease to 8.6 from
9.0 in February.

Earnings Reports This Week

Equity Trends

The S&P 500 Index plunged 49.40 points (2.65%) last
week. Trend changed from up to neutral when the Index fell
below the 1,839.57. The Index remains below its 20 day moving
average and fell below its 50 day moving average. Short term
momentum indicators are trending down.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day
moving average plunged to 39.20% from 74.60% last week.
Percent remains in intermediate downtrend.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day
moving average plunged last week to 73.00% from 85.20%.
Percent is overbought and trending down.

Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks fell last week
to 66.20% from 73.80% and moved below its 15 day moving
average. The Index is overbought and trending down.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased
last week to 81.22% from 78.66% and remained above its 15
day moving average. The Index remains overbought and above its
15 day moving average.

The TSX Composite Index fell 135.41 points (0.94%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 1.0). The Index
fell below its 20 day moving average (Score: 0.0). Strength
relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from
neutral (Score: 1.0). Technical score based on the above
technical indicators slipped to 2.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short
term momentum indicators are trending down.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving
average fell last week to 56.97% from 67.09%. Percent
remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving
average slipped last week to 77.87% from 78.90%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 385.96 points (2.35%)
last week. Trend changed from up to neutral (Score: 0.5) on
a move below 16,046.99 on Friday. The Average fell below its 20
and 50 day moving averages (Score: 0.0). Strength relative to
the S&P 500 Index remained positive. Technical score fell
to 1.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending down.

Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average
stocks fell last week to 66.67% from 73.33% and remained
below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate
overbought and trending down.

Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite Index plunged to
55.89% from 60.74% and remained below its 15 day moving
average. The Index remains overbought and trending down.

The NASDAQ Composite Index plunged 128.00 points (3.10%)
last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index
remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Strength
relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical
score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators
are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

The Russell 2000 Index plunged 41.94 points (3.64%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains
below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Strength relative to
the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains
at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are oversold,
but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 208.37 points
(2.75%) last week. Trend changed on Friday from up to
neutral on a move below 7, 375.59. The Average fell below its
20 and 50 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P
500 Index changed from positive to neutral. Technical score
fell to 1.0 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators
are trending down.

The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index slipped 5.00
points (0.09%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was
confirmed on a move above 5,477.30. The Index remains above its
20 and 50 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P
500 Index improved to positive to neutral. Technical score
improved to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum
indicators are overbought.

The Nikkei Average plunged 1,103.72 points (7.33%) last
week. Intermediate downtrend was confirmed on a move below
13,995.86. The Average fell below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving
averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed
from positive to negative. Technical score dropped to 0.0 from
2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are oversold,
but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

iShares Europe 350 units fell $0.61 (1.26%) last week.
An intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above $48.89.
Units fell below their 20 day moving average on Friday.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained positive.
Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum
indicators are overbought and showing signs of rolling over.

The Shanghai Composite Index added 71.71 points (3.48%) last
week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up on a move
above 2,079.55. The Index remained above its 20 day moving
average and moved above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved to positive
from neutral. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 1.5 out of
3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have
yet to show signs of peaking.

iShares Emerging Markets added $0.53 (1.28%) last week.
Intermediate trend remained up. Units remain above their 20, 50
and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P
500 Index remained positive. Technical score remained at 3.0
out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and
showing early signs of peaking.

Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index plunged 0.99 (1.23%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index fell below its 20
and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are
trending down.

The Euro gained 1.83 (1.34%) last week. Intermediate
trend remains up. The Euro moved above its 20 and 50 day moving
averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

The Canadian Dollar was unchanged last week. Trend
changed from down to neutral on a move above 91.41. The Canuck
Buck remains above its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short
term momentum indicators are overbought.

The Japanese Yen gained 1.57 (1.62%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen moved above its 20 and
50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are
trending up.

Commodities

The CRB Index added 4.45 points (1.46%) last week.
Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above 308.38. The
Index remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 changed from neutral to
positive. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0.

Gasoline jumped $0.08 per gallon (2.73%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Gasoline remains above its 20
day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from neutral to positive. Technical score improved to
3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0.

Crude Oil gained another $2.68 per barrel (2.65%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Crude remains
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to positive. Technical
score improved to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum
indicators are trending up.

Natural Gas gained $0.20 per MBtu (4.52%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains negative. Gas moved above its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from neutral to positive. Technical score improved to
2.0 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending up.

The S&P Energy Index fell 10.70 points (1.62%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative
to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score
remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have
rolled over from overbought levels.

The Philadelphia Oil Services Index fell 7.63 points (2.62%)
last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved
below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score slipped to
2.0 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending down.

Gold gained $16.70 per ounce (1.28%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Gold moved above its 20 and 50
day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from negative to positive. Technical score improved to
3.0 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending up.

Silver was unchanged last week. Intermediate trend
remains up. Silver remains below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving
averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed
from negative to neutral. Technical score improved to 1.5 from
1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Strength relative to Gold remains negative.

The AMEX Gold Bug Index slipped 0.84 points (0.37%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index remains
below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative
to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative.
Technical score improved to 1.0 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term
momentum indicators are trending up. Strength relative to Gold
changed from neutral to negative.

Platinum gained $14.00 per ounce (0.97%) last week.
Trend remains up. Platinum remains above its 20 day MA.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained positive.
Technical score remains at 3.0. Strength relative to Gold
remains positive. ‘Tis the season for strength!

Palladium added $16.00 per ounce (2.02%). Nice breakout
on Friday. Platinum remains above its 20 day MA. Strength
relative to the S&P 500 Index and Gold remains positive.
Score: 3.0

Copper added $0.01 per lb.(0.33%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains down. Copper remains above its 20
day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from neutral to positive. Technical score improved to
2.0 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending up.

The TSX Metals & Mining Index added 12.55 points (1.56%)
last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index
remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to
the S&P 500 Index improved to positive from neutral.
Technical score improved to 2.0 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term
momentum indicators are trending up.

Lumber added $0.60 (0.18%) last week. Trend remains
down. Lumber remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength
relative to the S&P 500 changed from negative to neutral.

The Grain ETN slipped $0.62 (1.24%) last week. Trend
remains up. Units fell below their 20 day moving average on
Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains
positive. Technical score fell to 2.0 from 3.0 out of 3.0.

The Agriculture ETF fell $0.64 (1.19%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Units fell below their 20 day
moving average on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500
Index remains positive. Technical score slipped to 2.0 from 3.0
out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

Interest Rates

The yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped 10.7 basis points
(3.93%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield
remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum
indicators are trending down.

Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF added $2.27
(2.09%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units
remain above their 20 day moving average.

Other Issues

The VIX Index spiked 3.07 (21.99%) last week. The Index
moved above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

Technical action by individual equities in the S&P 500
was bearish last week. On Friday, 48 S&P 500 stocks
broke intermediate support levels. Look for more stocks
breaking support than stocks breaking resistance this week.

Technical action by individual equities in the TSX Composite
Index was neutral. Energy stocks dominated the list of
stocks breaking resistance. Seasonal influences in the sector
remain positive until early May.

Major breakdowns by broadly based U.S. equity indices last
week imply that an intermediate correction has started.
Short and intermediate technical indicators for U.S. indices
and sectors generally are trending down from overbought levels.

Economic news this week is expected to confirm a rebound in
the U.S. economy from depressed December/early March
weather-depressed levels.

First quarter reports start to pour in this week. Main
focus is on the Financial Services sector. Technology also is
in focus. The market is anticipating a “difficult” comparison
for earnings and revenues on a year-over-year basis. Consensus
for S&P 500 companies on average is no change from last
year. However, most first quarter reports are released at
annual meetings where stock splits, dividend increases and
share buy backs frequently are announced.

Historically during U.S. Midterm Presidential Election
years, U.S. equity indices have reached an intermediate high
near the middle of April followed by a correction that lasts
until early October. Technical action last week suggests
that the correction this year already has started. We are not
alone with this call. Following is a link to a MarketWatch.com
call published on Friday with a headline reading, “A bigger
10%-15% correction is coming this autumn: Bank of
America/Merrill Lynch”.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/11/a-bigger-10-15-correction-is-coming-this-autumn-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch/

International focus this week is on China’s first quarter
GDP to be released on Wednesday. Consensus is for a
slowdown to 7.3% from 7.7% in the fourth quarter. Other
international focuses include developments in Ukraine,
Venezuela and Iran.

Trading activity is expected to diminish during the week as
the Good Friday holiday approaches.

Weakness in the U.S. Dollar continues to impact equity
markets, particularly the Materials and Energy sectors.

Equity markets outside of the U.S. continue to show positive
returns on a real and relative basis.

The Bottom Line

Strength in mid-week last week is expected to prove to be
the last chance to take profits in a variety of seasonal trades
that were approaching their average exit dates. Intermediate
downside risk remains. Any short term strength will provide an
opportunity to reduce positions.

Special Free Services available
through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing
seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data
base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate
cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

It’s time to celebrate!

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Tech Talk celebrated its
11^th anniversary of service on April
12^th

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Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions
offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca 
and www.equityclock.com
are for information only. They should not be
considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned
securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be
accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are
Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada)
Inc.  All of the views expressed herein are the personal
views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of
Horizons ETFs Investment Management (Canada) Inc., although any
of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in
positions or transactions in the various client portfolios
managed by Horizons ETFs Investment Management (Canada)
Inc.

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April
11^th 2014