Markets on the Front Foot: Are Expectations Outpacing Reality?
Investor enthusiasm builds, but conflicting forecasts and fragile labor data suggest the rally may be premature.
Prepare, Don’t Predict: Building Resilient Portfolios with Private Credit
For decades, investors climbed the 60/40 ladder with confidence. Now, every step feels less steady. High inflation that refuses to budge, interest rates that won’t come down anytime soon, and the growing correlation between stocks and bonds...
Oil Prices on the Way Down
Low oil prices are welcome news to most households, but not producers.
China Tries To Curb Competition Excess capacity leads to excessive competition.
by Carl Tannebaum, Chief Economist, Northern Trust Excess capacity leads to excessive competition. I learned a new English…
The Threat To Fed Independence
A compromised central bank will bring long-lasting risks.
Is Another Great Moderation At Hand?
Radical policy changes can launch new economic eras.
AI’s Long-Term Potential: More Upside Than Downside
AI’s long-term potential remains strong, but supply chain risks and uneven adoption may impact near-term gains.
The Case Of The Missing Prices
Limited price collection will complicate estimates of inflation.
The Great Unwind
U.S. trade strategy is a top worry among economists.
Hot And Sour
A period of slower growth and increased uncertainty lies ahead.
Federal Reserve: Tension Building
by Carl Tannenbaum, Chief Economist, Northern Trust Central bank independence is paramount. The Marriner Eccles Building, home to…
AI Is Powering Productivity
by Ryan Boyle, Senior Economist, Northern Trust Gains from AI will be gradual but significant. Everything that our…
Trade War: New Countdown Begins
by Vaibhav Tandon, Senior Economist, Northern Trust Common disparagements of television dramas include overdramatic plot twists and inconsistencies,…
Neither Here Nor There
by Carl Tannenbaum, Vaibhav Tandon, Ryan Boyle, Northern Trust Anthropologists use the term “liminal state” to describe an…
Mid-Year Themes
We pause at halftime to recap the highlights of this important year.
Big Bill Promises Big Bills
OBBBA sets a path for more borrowing ahead.
