by Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com
Pre-opening Comments for Monday November 24th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures responded to a 1.86% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index overnight.
Apple gained $0.51 to $116.98 after Susquehanna raised is target price to $135 from $120.
Raymond James lowered its ratings on selected integrated energy stocks. Chevron was reduced from a Strong Buy to Outperform. Exxon Mobil was reduced from Outperform to Market Perform. Chevron slipped$0.48 to $118.10. Exxon Mobil eased$0.35 to $96.46
Verizon lost $0.39 to $49.82 after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.
EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2014/11/23/stock-market-outlook-for-november-24-2014/
Note comments on copper.
Economic News This Week
Second estimate of second quarter U.S. GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to slip to 3.3% from the first estimate of 3.5%.
Canadian September Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.5% versus a decline of 0.3% in August.
September Case/Shiller 20 city home price index to be released at 9:00 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to show a year-over-year gain of 4.6% versus a gain of 5.6% in August.
November Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase to 96.0 from 94.5 in October.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to dip to 286,000 from 291,000 last week
October Durable Goods Orders to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to decline 0.7% versus a drop of 1.3% in September. Excluding transportation orders, October Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.5% versus a decline of 0.2% in September.
October Personal Income to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in September. October Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.3% versus a decline of 0.2% in September.
November Chicago PMI to be released at 9:45 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to slip to 63.0 from 66.2 in October.
November Michigan Sentiment Index to be released at 9:55 AM on Wednesday is expected to increase to 89.9 from 89.4 in October.
October New Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase to 469,000 from 467,000 in September.
Canadian third quarter real GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 2.2% from 3.6% in the second quarter.
Earnings News This Week
Monday: Big Lots
Tuesday: Campbell Soup, Hewlett Packard, Tiffany
Wednesday: Deere
Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters for Equity Indices/ETFs
Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts
Trend: Up, Down or Neutral
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative or Neutral
Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and MACD: Up, Down or Mixed
Green: Upgrade
Red: Downgrade
The S&P 500 Index gained 23.68 points last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 88.40% from 81.50%. Percent continues to trend up, but is intermediate overbought.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 79.40% from 75.20%. Percent continues to trend up, but is intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 73.60% from 69.20% and remains above its 20 day moving average. The Index continues to trend higher and is intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week to 58.57% from 56.18% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index continues to recover, but is intermediate overbought.
The TSX Composite Index gained 267.98 points (1.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 1.0). The Index remains above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1.0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral (Score: 1.0). Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 57.77% from 49.40%. Percent remains in an intermediate uptrend, but is overbought.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 48.61% from 43.82%. Percent continues to trend higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 175.32 points (0.99%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks was unchanged last week at 76.67% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 55.14% from 54.53% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index continues to trend higher, but is intermediate overbought.
The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 24.43 points (0.52%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score slipped to 2.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
The Russell 2000 Index slipped 1.39 points (0.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. Technical score slipped to 1.5 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 32.35 points (0.36%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score fell to 2.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index plunged 141.12 points (2.61%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Nikkei Average dropped 133.32 points (0.76%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
iShares Europe gained $0.89 (2.04%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above $44.12. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
The Shanghai Composite Index added 7.97 points (0.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score remains at 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have changed to mixed from up.
iShares Emerging Markets gained $1.00 (2.41%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above $42.33 to complete a reverse head and shoulder pattern. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Index gained another 0.78 (0.89%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators changed to mixed from an uptrend.
The Euro dropped another 1.40 (1.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Euro remains below its 20 day moving average Short term momentum indicators changed to mixed from trending up.
The Canadian Dollar gained US 0.40 cents (0.45%) last week. More than all of the gain was recorded on Friday when Canada’s inflation rate came in higher than expected. Intermediate trend remains down. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
The Japanese Yen dropped another 1.09 (1.27%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold.
Commodities
Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters for Commodity Indices/ETFs
Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts
Trend: Up, Down or Neutral
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative or Neutral
Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and MACD: Up, Down or Mixed
Green: Upgrade
Red: Downgrade
The CRB Index added 2.18 points (0.82%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
Gasoline slipped $0.01 per gallon (0.49%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Gasoline remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
Crude oil added $0.58 per barrel (0.76%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Crude remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have bottomed and are starting to trend up.
Natural Gas added $0.21 per MBtu (5.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. “Natty” remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators changed trend to mixed from down.
The S&P Energy Index added 15.72 points (2.50%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score increased to 1.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
The Philadelphia Oil Services Index added 5.59 points (2.29%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Gold gained $9.80 per ounce (0.82%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Gold moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Techncial score improved to 1.5 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Silver added $0.09 per ounce (0.55%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Silver moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score increased to 1.5 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Strength relative to Gold is neutral.
The AMEX Gold Bug Index gained 6.87 points (4.08%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Platinum added $11.40 per ounce (0.94%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. PLAT moved above its 20 day MA on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Palladium gained $28.45 per ounce (3.71%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. PALL moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and gold improved to neutral from negative. Technical score increased to 1.5 from 0.0 out of 3.0.
Copper slipped 0.013 per lb. (0.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Copper slipped below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score fell to 0.0 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators remain mixed.
The TSX Metals & Mining Index jumped 45.49 points (6.36%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above 720.71. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score increased to 3.0 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Lumber added $13.50 (4.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Lumber moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score increased to 1.5 from 0.0 out of 3.0.
The Grain ETN slipped $0.62 (1.62%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above their 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral
The Agriculture ETF gained $1.18 (2.16%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from neutral on a move above $55.55. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Technical score increased to 3.0 from 2.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries slipped 0.5 basis points (0.22%). Intermediate trend remains down. Yield fell below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF added $0.61 (0.51%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Price moved above its 20 day moving average.
Other Issues
The VIX Index fell 0.41 (3.08%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average.
Volume on U.S. equity markets will diminish as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches this Thursday.
Earnings news is not a significant influence on equity markets this week.
Short term momentum indicators for most equity markets and sectors are trending higher, but are highly overbought.
Seasonal influences this week, particularly the day before and the day after the Thanksgiving holiday) are exceptionally positive. Data was offered in EquityClock.com on Friday. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2014/11/20/stock-market-outlook-for-november-21-2014/
Economic news this week are expected to confirm modest gains by the U.S. economy.
Seasonal influences between now and the first week in January (particularly during mid-term election years)
Recent accommodative monetary policy changes in China, Japan and Europe favour higher equity prices. Nice breakout last week by European equity indices and related ETFs.
The Bottom Line
Preferred strategy is to hold current equity positions and to add to positions on weakness. Preferred sectors included Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Materials.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
StockTwits released on Friday @equityclock
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00 AM: Bullish. 17 stocks broke resistance. None broke support.
Nice breakout above a reverse head & shoulders pattern by the S&P/TSX Metals & Mining Index. ‘Tis the season!
$ZMT.CA broke resistance above $12.12. ‘Tis the season for the sector!
$TCK broke above resistance above US#17.21. ‘Tis the season!
Monitored List of Technical/Seasonal Ideas
Green: Increased score
Red: Decreased score
A score of 1.5 or higher is needed to maintain a position
Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.
Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not held personally or in HAC.
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC November 21st 2014
Copyright © Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com
