Each year in late December, Doug Kass, CIO, Seabreeze Partners, publishes his 20 Surprises for the coming year. Yesterday, with more than half of the year behind us, Kass published his report card on his 2009 calls.
Kass got it right or mostly right on the most important of his market and economic calls, except for the prediction on (3) commercial real estate. Kass is refreshingly modest about the whole predictions thing, though he does deserve a pat.
It was quite a list, the article is worth reading, and here is the report card summary, call by call:
1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff.
Grade: A
2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected.
Grade: B+
3. The nation's commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009.
Grade: F-
4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected.
Grade: B
5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year's first half.
Grade: C+
6. A second-quarter "growth scare" bursts the bubble in the government bond market.
Grade: B+
7. Commodities markets remain subdued.
Grade: B
8. Capital spending disappoints further.
Grade: B
9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009.
Grade: A-
10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009.
Grade: B+
11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom.
Grade: A
12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages.
Grade: B
13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox.
Grade: F
14. Large merger of equals deals multiply.
Grade: F
15. Focus shifts for several media darlings.
Grade: C+
16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age.
Grade: A
18. The Fox Business Network closes.
Grade: C-
19. Old, leveraged media implode.
Grade: A
20. The Middle East's infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to "market conditions."
Grade: B+
Kass's entire analysis is worth reading here.
