Commodities Bull Market

Over the last two years, commodities have been correcting and while some have gone down more than others, on a equal weighted basis (CC Index shown below) commodities are still around the similar levels they were in early parts of 2008, just prior to the global financial crisis.

Interestingly enough, over the last few quarters just about every investment bank has declared the end to the commodities bull market. This is extremely premature in my opinion, as I continue to believe that demand and supply fundamentals still remain heavily in the favour of increasing prices (especially in agriculture and precious metals sectors).

Nevertheless, commodities remain in a downtrend for now and have experienced an awful annualised performance over the last two years. I admit that there is still a potential for further downside prior to a proper bottom and a recovery towards new highs, therefore I am very selecting in which commodities are ripe to be bought at present. As the chart above shows perfectly, while some commodities are breaking out, others still remain in a downtrend.