Some years are packed with drama—but it’s not always the headlines that matter most in the long run.
Louis-Vincent Gave1 makes a compelling point: the events that shape our future often don’t make the biggest splash when they happen. Think back to 2001. Everyone remembers 9/11. But in terms of long-term global impact? It was China joining the WTO three months later that reshaped the world economy. Similarly, the 2008 financial crisis was massive—but the rise of U.S. shale oil and the launch of the iPhone may have had a bigger economic legacy.
So, what about 2025? What will we really look back on and say, “That changed everything”?
Three Speeches That Changed the Game
Forget the usual suspects—tariffs, wars, elections. Gave says three speeches delivered in early 2025 might be the real turning point:
- JD Vance’s address at the Munich Security Conference
- Donald Trump’s speech in Riyadh
- Erik Prince’s talk at Hillsdale College
Why these? Because they share a theme: The U.S. is pulling back its global military presence.
As Gave puts it, “The US is folding its global security umbrella.” Not because it wants to, but because it no longer makes financial sense. “Shooting million-dollar missiles at ten-thousand-dollar drones to protect billion-dollar ships no longer makes sense.”
The New Focus: The Americas
Gave sees the U.S. shifting its attention closer to home—something he calls the “Fort Monroe” doctrine. The idea? Strengthen control over the Western Hemisphere and leave the rest of the world to sort itself out.
This pivot, he says, is “inherently very bullish for Latin American assets.” And the numbers already support it—Latin American stocks and bonds are outperforming global markets this year.
Defense Stocks Are Up—But Are We Asking the Right Questions?
Yes, defense stocks in Europe and Japan are rallying. But Gave warns investors not to assume that more military spending is the smartest move.
“If erstwhile US allies like Europe and Japan were to go out and spend a fortune on their armed forces, would this not be to mistake where their vulnerabilities truly lie?”
Translation? These countries might be worrying about the wrong threat. It’s not just military might they should be thinking about—it’s their energy security.
Is the Global Price of Oil a Thing of the Past?
For decades, U.S. naval power helped ensure that the price of commodities like oil, copper, or soybeans stayed mostly the same no matter where you lived.
But if the U.S. is done policing the seas? That could change—fast.
In Gave’s words: “Can we still assume that the world’s major commodity prices will stay uniform across the globe?” The short answer: probably not. That spells opportunity for traders—and uncertainty for everyone else.
Why U.S. Treasuries Aren’t the Safe Haven They Once Were
If countries can no longer rely on the U.S. Navy to keep their supply chains safe, why would they keep stashing their savings in U.S. bonds?
That’s the logic Gave lays out: “Saving in US treasuries may no longer be such an obvious course of action.” Especially if the U.S. starts squeezing allies during crises, like it did with Ukraine’s minerals deal.
That helps explain why both U.S. bonds and the dollar are struggling—even while Trump promises trillions in Middle Eastern investment.
What Happens in the Next Energy Crisis?
Let’s imagine another oil shock, like in 2022. Back then, the U.S. released reserves to help bring prices down globally.
Would that happen again?
Maybe not.
Gave thinks a second Trump term might go the other way—blocking energy exports and telling global manufacturers to come to the U.S. if they want cheap fuel. “Given everything we have seen in recent months, does not the latter option seem far more likely?”
That’s a huge red flag for energy-importing nations like Japan, Korea, or Germany.
Welcome to the “Just in Case” Economy
The age of “just in time” inventory—where everyone ran lean and relied on smooth global trade—is over.
Now, it’s all about stockpiling. “Countries will have to accumulate inventories of key resources; companies will need to maintain higher inventories of spare parts and consumer goods,” Gave explains.
Is this shift inflationary? Maybe. But more importantly, it introduces volatility and risk. “Goods and commodities can be bought at the wrong time... It adds up to inventories adding risk to a business and distracting the management.”
In plain terms: companies will be less efficient, margins may shrink, and markets could stay bumpy.
Where to Look for Opportunity
If Gave’s thesis holds, here are the kinds of assets he thinks are positioned to benefit:
- Latin America – Especially for manufacturing aimed at U.S. buyers
- Commodities – Particularly those easy to store (metals, minerals)
- Commodity Traders – Big price swings = big arbitrage profits
- Resource-Rich Nations – Think Australia, Canada, Norway, South Africa
- Grid Infrastructure Firms – Countries will need to overhaul aging power systems
- Banks – More inventory means more financing demand
Best of all? “As of now, investors do not need to pay up for the above assets. Most are trading at roughly average, or slightly below average, historical valuations.”
The Quiet Revolution
The real story of 2025 might not be the headlines you’re watching. It’s the deeper structural shifts—America stepping back, global trade splintering, energy becoming a weapon, and economies learning to live with higher risk.
“Still, if I were forced to make a choice as to what will go down as marking a key shift in the global macro environment... it would be the folding of the U.S. security umbrella.”
In a world full of noise, this might be the quiet revolution that changes everything.
Footnote:
1 "What Will 2025 Be Remembered For?" Evergreen Gavekal, 12 June 2025.
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