The 'Trump Put' & How ETFs are Shaping Wild Markets

Can one word from a U.S. president really move markets by 8% in two hours? Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas calls it the "Trump Put"—and that's just for starters.

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Episode Summary:

In this episode, Raise Your Average hosts Pierre and Mike welcome back Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, and co-host of Trillions, for a dynamic conversation that peels back the curtain on ETF flows, investor psychology, and the growing crossover between crypto and traditional finance. Balchunas unpacks the hidden narratives driving today's markets—from the surge in passive flows and rebalancing tailwinds, to the rise of “Vanguardians” and the Degens chasing leveraged plays. He also explores how mutual fund share classes, private credit, and public-private crossovers are changing the ETF landscape. With his signature humor and razor-sharp insight, Balchunas offers a front-row seat to the evolution of asset management.

Key Takeaways:

1. The "Trump Put" Is Real: Balchunas explains how one word—“pause”—from a U.S. president can unleash a massive algo-driven rally, reflecting a market hypersensitive to political signals and liquidity.
2. ETFs Are Eating the World: Whether it’s passive investors (the “Vanguardians”) or triple-leveraged degens, ETF flows are not slowing down—even in volatile markets. Mutual fund share classes may be the next frontier.
3. Bitcoin and Gold Can Coexist: Crypto is becoming institutionalized, with smarter ownership structures and better volatility profiles. Balchunas argues there’s room for both “hot sauce” and “gold bars” in modern portfolios.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro and Eric Balchunas joins the show
03:00 – $333B ETF inflows and the "Vanguard clip"
05:45 – The divergence between retail flows and institutional positioning
07:00 – The "Trump Put" and the 8% rally on one word
08:30 – Degens, leveraged ETFs, and why people keep buying the dip
10:00 – Persistent love for U.S. stocks despite better international value
12:00 – Gold vs. Bitcoin: who's winning in 2025?
14:00 – Bitcoin's improving volatility profile and “better owners”
16:00 – Why Bitcoin ETFs are changing the game
18:30 – Cognitive dissonance: crypto purists vs. TradFi adoption
21:00 – Passive power, BlackRock conspiracies, and Bogle’s last stand
27:30 – ETF transparency vs. mutual fund mythology
30:00 – Mutual fund ETF share classes: game changer or Trojan horse?
34:00 – Private credit and public-private crossover ETFs
38:30 – Why XOVR’s SpaceX bet caught fire
40:00 – The veil lifts on private equity NAV “magic”
43:00 – Active ETFs: rebirth, reinvention, or just beta repackaged?
50:00 – The final frontier: alts, liquidity, and the ETF trust factor

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