Anti-Trump Rebellion Gains Momentum

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

AN OBSCURE SOUTH DAKOTA SENATOR has generated a firestorm within the Republican Party, as a chorus rises that it’s time to move on — Donald Trump lost in 2020, there was no significant voter fraud, so get over it.

MIKE ROUNDS, A RELIABLY CONSERVATIVE back-bencher, is well regarded by colleagues in both parties. He made headlines this past weekend by declaring that “While there were some irregularities, there were none of the irregularities which would have risen to the point where they would have changed the vote outcome in a single state. We simply did not win the election.”

PREDICTABLY, TRUMP HIT BACK with juvenile taunts, asking whether Rounds “is crazy or just stupid” to not challenge the argument that the election was stolen. Trump called Rounds a “jerk,” which angered most Republicans in the Senate.

MANY REPUBLICANS JUMPED TO DEFEND ROUNDS: “I take great exception to anybody who calls Mike Rounds a jerk,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia Republican. “Because he’s one of the kindest, nicest, most sincere members that we have.” Rounds lost his wife to cancer in November.

OTHER REPUBLICANS DEFENDED ROUNDS: “I think Sen. Rounds told the truth about what happened in the 2020 election. And I agree with him,” Sen. Mitch McConnell declared. “I say welcome to the club,” said the highly regarded Sen. John Thune (R-SD). There’s growing anger over the Trump litmus test, which requires GOP candidates to agree that the election was stolen.

HOW IMPORTANT IS THIS REPUBLICAN ANGER toward Trump? He still has strong support in the House and within the Republican base, but the mantra to “move on” is growing within the party. And there’s a belief that Trump faces a serious primary challenge challenge if he runs for the nomination in 2024.

WELCOME TO NEW HAMPSHIRE: Several Republicans will get to enjoy the Granite State winter in early 2024. Voters there are notoriously independent, so at least three potential challengers will get a careful look — Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. All three could be formidable candidates; one or two of them could keep Trump’s vote total to only 50%.

AS THE 2024 CAMPAIGN moves southward, Trump probably would capture most of the Sun Belt primaries. But a strong showing by Hogan or Cheney — who will blast away at Trump — could soften up the former president in the general election.

VIRTUALLY EVERY REPUBLICAN WE’VE TALKED TO believes Trump lost the election, with no significant fraud. And now he has vocal enemies within his own party, especially in the Senate, where it’s clear that Trump has worn out his welcome.

 

 

 


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.

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