by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
THERE’S AN ENORMOUS GULF between President Trump and most Americans — we wear a mask and practice social distancing, and he doesn’t. We’re convinced that if Trump wore a mask and set an example, he would see an instant bump in his dismal polling numbers.
THE DATA SUPPORTS THIS: We were struck recently by polls from Pew Research and Fox News that showed overwhelming percentages of Americans support the use of masks. About 70 percent of respondents told Pew that people should wear masks most or all of the time they’re in public, and an astonishing 68% of Republicans — and 61% of strong Trump supporters — told Fox they favor warning masks.
TRUMP TALKS ABOUT A “SILENT MAJORITY” that supports law and order, but we would argue that the real silent majority supports doing whatever can open up the economy; wearing a mask is a small price to pay. Unfortunately, the media is addicted to photos of young people crowding bars and beaches, which sends an incorrect signal that the entire country is in non-compliance.
THE SHIFT ON MASKS has been remarkable in recent days from Republicans — tough guy Dick Cheney, former Defense Secretary James Mattis, and most prominently Mike Pence are wearing masks. And most of the Republican governors in the reeling Sunbelt have urged the wearing of masks.
PRESIDENT TRUMP HATES ANY SIGN OF WEAKNESS, and thus feels that wearing a mask would be inappropriate for him. We strongly disagree — wearing a mask wouldn’t hurt him with his adoring base; they’ll back him unequivocally.
AMERICANS WANT SOME LEADERSHIP, not happy talk; a mask-wearing president would show that Trump gets it, he’s one of us. And it just might revive his slumping poll numbers with senior citizens, who are the main victims of this plague.
WE HEARD OVER THE WEEKEND that Trump’s inner circle — aghast that he’s far behind in the polls — is looking for a new agenda and some new themes. Wearing a mask and urging social distancing would be a good start. Yet Trump wasted the news spin yesterday by re-tweeting a video of his supporters, one of whom chanted “White power!!”
RATHER THAN IGNORE THIS NEW VIRUS OUTBREAK, Trump could get in front of it by urging aggressive public behavior, supporting experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci — and it could help the president in the polls. Joe Biden still looks beatable, but not if Trump stubbornly refuses to wear a mask or show any empathy.
CAN TRUMP CHANGE HIS TONE? That’s the key; his advisers are urging him to appeal to the center on issues like the economy. If he doesn’t, Trump will be a one-term president, potentially dragging the Senate down with him. That terrifies Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — who suddenly has become a big proponent of wearing masks.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI is registered as a portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
