by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
LOST AMID ALL THE SUB-PLOTS in the confrontation between America and Iran is a very intriguing angle — the U.S. has extraordinary resources that can anticipate virtually everything Iran will do.
THE IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACK on Iraqi bases was no surprise. The quick cessation of hostilities was expected. The exact location of Gen. Qassam Soleimani was clear for years (as is the exact location of Kim Jong-un).
AFTER TALKING WITH AN INTELLIGENCE EXPERT, we have the following conclusions: First, there are “moles” within Iran and Iraq who cooperate with the U.S. Second, American satellites are so sophisticated that if you place a pack of cigarettes on the roof of a car in Tehran, the U.S. will know instantly whether they’re Winstons or Marlboros. And heat-seeking satellite imagery can easily track — and intercept — troop and missile movements.
THESE AND OTHER STUNNING TECHNOLOGICAL advances are facilitated by a U.S. defense budget that is close to $750 billion in this fiscal year. Only one other country — China, at about $180 billion — comes remotely close. Russia spends about $50 billion annually on defense, as does Saudi Arabia; Israel spends about $25 billion. The staggering U.S. total will easily exceed $800 billion annually within the next two years.
SUPERIOR U.S. TECHNOLOGY has prompted countries like Iran to rely on other options — cyberwarfare, counterfeiting of U.S. currencies, corporate espionage and hacking, terrorism by proxies, etc. But in addition to superior weapons, the U.S. has the ultimate advantage — human assets, which play a major role in the Mideast; we’re convinced that Washington will be tipped off by spies whenever Iran considers a major operation.
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IMPEACHMENT — REMEMBER IMPEACHMENT? It’s about to resurface, even though most of Washington — and the country — seems tired of the issue. Ironically, the most interesting angle now is the growing exasperation by Senate Democrats toward Nancy Pelosi, who has lost her battle with Mitch McConnell to extract concessions before a trial begins.
PELOSI WILL SURRENDER soon, sending articles of impeachment to the Senate within the next few days. She will have to heed the advice of Senate Democratic heavyweights like Dianne Feinstein, who bluntly stated yesterday that “if it’s serious and urgent, send them over; if it’s not, don’t send them over.” Feinstein and a growing number of Democrats envision an impeachment trial crowding out the party’s primaries, which begin in Iowa on Feb. 3 — and they’re resigned to Donald Trump’s acquittal.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF DEMOCRATS, led by Chuck Schumer, who will insist on subpoenas and witnesses; they’re convinced that there will be damaging testimony from John Bolton, who knows where all the bodies are buried. Will Bolton testify? Four Republicans would have to defy McConnell and vote to subpoena witnesses, and they could succeed, inflicting political damage on Trump.
BUT THAT’S ABOUT ALL THEY CAN DO: Trump’s conviction and ouster still looks very unlikely — that would require 20 GOP defectors. So Democrats like Feinstein are saying to Pelosi, in effect, let’s get this over with.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
