Listen on The Move
What if the most "diversified" portfolio you own is actually one of the most concentrated bets in market history — and almost no one is talking about it?
In this episode of Insight Is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down in-studio with Bill Smead, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Smead Capital Management — one of North America's most respected and unapologetically contrarian value investors. Bill has just made Smead Capital's first formal move into the Canadian market, launching two new mutual funds available to Canadian investors as of October 1, 2026.
Bill shares his remarkable journey from greyhound handicapper to Drexel Burnham Lambert broker to building one of the most disciplined high-conviction value firms in the business. Along the way, he reveals the eight criteria his firm uses to identify deeply undervalued, high-quality companies — and why patience, insider ownership, and refusing to flinch are the only true edge in markets.
The conversation cuts to the heart of today's most pressing investment risks: the breathtaking concentration in the S&P 500, the unfinished business of the 2022 bear market, the case for a 15-to-35-year commodity super-cycle, and why Canadian oil and gas may be among the most underappreciated assets on the planet right now. Bill also delivers a frank assessment of the AI CapEx bubble, what he calls the "financial shenanigans" reshaping Big Tech balance sheets, and what advisors should be telling clients who have been richly rewarded — and dangerously lulled — by the index trade.
Chapters
00:00 — Opening quote and teaser
00:01:00 — Introducing Bill Smead and the Canadian launch
00:02:00 — Bill's origin story: greyhound races, poker, and Drexel Burnham Lambert
00:11:30 — Discovering his 8-criteria investment discipline; Ziskin, Buffett and Munger
00:17:00 — How Smead Capital operates: waiting for great companies to hit the doghouse
00:22:30 — The power and limits of insider ownership as a timing signal
00:29:30 — Why the S&P 500 is now a concentrated glamour-growth portfolio
00:32:00 — Jack Bogle's monster: index investing and unintended risk
00:35:30 — The 2022 bear market as the new 1969-70; the '73-74 reckoning still ahead
00:42:30 — The 220-year commodity valuation chart and the oil and gas super-cycle
00:44:00 — Why Canadian oil sands are superior assets and Smead's Canadian holdings
00:47:30 — ESG, capital starvation, and the setup for energy out-performance
00:50:00 — The decade-by-decade pattern of market leaders: oil, Japan, dot-com, BRIC, AI
00:52:30 — The AI CapEx bubble and why hyperscalers are selling their soul
01:00:30 — Trump, oil prices, and the politics of cheap energy
01:04:30 — What advisors owe their clients right now
01:06:30 — Smead's new Canadian funds and the case for diversifying away from the mania
Connect with Bill Smead
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bill-smead-15502110/
Smead Capital Management: smeadcap.com
Important Disclaimer:
Smead Capital Management (Canada) Ltd. is the investment fund manager and portfolio manager of the Smead US Value Fund and Smead Global ex-US Value Fund, with Smead Capital Management, Inc. as sub-advisor. The Funds are new and have no performance history. References to history, performance and holdings relate to the U.S. strategies. Opinions are those of the speaker and are not investment advice. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the Fund Facts and the Simplified Prospectus before investing.
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