The energy sector has remained a focal point for investors in recent weeks as escalating tensions in the Middle East have renewed concerns surrounding global energy supply chains. Continued disruptions to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on energy infrastructure, and growing security concerns around Red Sea export routes have contributed to higher crude oil prices and increased volatility across energy markets. While OPEC+ has maintained a relatively stable production outlook, the market's attention has shifted toward the reliability of transportation and export capacity, resulting in strengthening price trends for crude oil, natural gas, and refined products.
As investors assess whether these developments represent a temporary supply shock or the beginning of a more sustained period of tight energy markets, the technical picture becomes increasingly important, with key support and resistance levels providing valuable insight into what the market may be watching next.
WTI Crude Oil: Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Turning next to the Point & Figure chart of WTI Crude's continuous contract, which stitches together the forward strip of futures contracts, a significant zone of resistance remains evident at the $111 level. This area has been tested on three separate occasions since 2022, with each advance ultimately failing as supply emerged and prices reversed lower. More recently, the chart has established a series of lower lows following the April attempt to overcome resistance, highlighting the importance of the current trend structure.
Initial support is identified at the three-box reversal level of $87.84, with additional support levels at $73.56 and $67.32. Should crude successfully move above $111, longer-term resistance can be found at $121.59, a level dating back to 2010, followed by $132.87 from 2011. In the meantime, SIA Energy Futures carries a perfect SMAX score of 10, indicating that price performance continues to lead in head-to-head comparisons against cash, bonds, equities, currencies, and the broader commodity complex. Viewed together, these support and resistance levels may provide a useful framework for interpreting future price movements amid what has become an increasingly active and often rapidly changing news environment.
Energy Sector: Leadership Remains, Participation Wanes
Turning next to the energy stocks, we can explore the technical framework through two complementary lenses: market breadth and relative strength. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) measures the percentage of securities within a given universe that are currently on Point & Figure buy signals, providing insight into how broadly participation is expanding or contracting across the sector. Looking back to June 30, 2026, the SIA Energy Bullish Percent Index stood near the 15% to 21% range, indicating that the majority of energy stocks were on Point & Figure sell signals and reflecting a breadth condition that had become heavily washed out. At that same time, Energy resided in the Unfavored (red) zone of the SIA Sector Report. By September 8, the picture had changed dramatically, with Energy rising to the #1 position on the sector rankings while the Bullish Percent Index moved above 80%, indicating broad participation across the group.
As of September 16, however, the SIA Energy Bullish Percent Index has retreated to 37.5% and is declining, suggesting that breadth has begun to narrow even as the sector continues to hold a favorable relative strength position within the favored (green) zone of the Sector Report. Viewed together, these indicators can provide valuable context regarding the health of a trend, helping distinguish periods when leadership is broad and expanding from periods when participation is becoming more selective. To assist with interpreting these shifts, we have included an inverted bell curve as a visual reference, allowing investors to recognize when breadth conditions are approaching historical extremes and to better understand where the sector may be positioned within its participation cycle.
If you are interested in discussing the concepts explored in today's Equity Leaders Weekly, please reach out to a member of the SIACharts team.
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