Noise is not signal. That distinction — simple to state, difficult to act on — sits at the heart of the two most recent Belski Briefs 1 from Humilis Investment Strategies. Across the April 20 and April 27 editions, Chief Investment Officer Brian Belski and his team deliver a consistent, disciplined message: the fundamental backdrop for US equities remains constructive, and investors who chase headlines do so at their own peril.
Fundamentals Win, Again
The April 20 brief opens with a pointed reminder that markets have a way of sorting themselves out. Geopolitical headlines — Middle East tensions chief among them — dominated the financial news cycle, yet the S&P 500 absorbed the volatility, rebounded, and pushed to new highs. Belski's team had anticipated exactly this outcome, reiterating that geopolitical events "tend to drive short term volatility, not long-term direction."
The more important story, in their view, is happening beneath the surface. Earnings expectations have not just held — they have increased. With Q1 2026 earnings season underway, early results, particularly from financials, affirm the team's core thesis. The Humilis team states plainly that they "continue to expect solid earnings growth across sectors and market caps, which should help sustain the broader participation trend we have seen since the start of the year."
That is not a hedge. It is a conviction.
From Momentum to Fundamentals: The Regime Has Shifted
By April 27, the thesis deepened. The Belski Briefs team offered important structural context: the cyclical bull market they have publicly defined since October 2022 has been powered largely by momentum and multiple expansion. That era, they argue, is giving way to something more durable. "Stock returns would be increasingly defined by earnings and fundamentals" — a shift that, in their view, is now clearly underway given the corporate earnings being delivered and the improving forward guidance.
This is not a subtle point. A market that rewards earnings discipline rather than momentum chasing demands a different posture from advisors and their clients. It means stock selection matters more. It means diversification earns its keep again. And it means that what worked in the prior phase of the bull market may not be the right roadmap going forward.
The Growth-vs-Value Tug of War
Here is where the April 27 brief gets particularly instructive. Belski and his team entered 2026 calling for a broadening-out of market leadership — specifically toward value and small-to-mid-cap (SMID) stocks. That call showed early promise in Q1, but uncertainty around Middle East headlines caused investors to retreat to familiar territory: technology, mega-cap, and growth stocks.
Growth is once again outperforming value on a year-to-date basis. The XLK ETF chart included in the April 27 brief tells a sharp visual story — a decisive recovery and run higher after the mid-quarter drawdown. And yet, the Humilis team is careful not to dismiss technology. They describe the sector as "a key pillar of market support given its earnings power and structural growth characteristics."
The nuance, however, matters enormously. "Not all stocks are created equal," they write, "and this has clearly been the case this year given the divergence in some recent earnings results." The message to investors: selectivity over sector-chasing.
The Forgotten Stocks Are "Putting Up" Numbers
The most forward-looking insight in these briefs concerns the overlooked parts of the market — value stocks and SMID-cap names that, in the Humilis team's words, have been "stocks that did not work earlier in the bull market." Despite showing "similarly attractive fundamental trends," these areas suffer from a credibility deficit with investors. The believability factor, as Belski's team frames it, "continues to remain low."
But the team expects that to change. As forgotten areas "continue to put up good numbers in the coming months," they anticipate broader market participation to re-emerge. This is not wishful thinking — it is a fundamentals-driven thesis backed by improving earnings across sectors and market caps.
Key Takeaways for Advisors and Investors
1. Don't trade the headlines. The S&P 500's rebound in the face of geopolitical noise is a live case study in the cost of emotional decision-making. Belski's consistent counsel is that history does not reward reactive investors.
2. The earnings cycle is the story. With expectations rising and early Q1 results coming in constructively — particularly in financials — the fundamental underpinning of this market is strengthening, not weakening.
3. Technology still matters, but selectivity is now essential. The sector's structural earnings power remains intact, but the intra-sector divergence in recent results means index-level exposure is no longer sufficient. Active identification of quality within growth is the appropriate posture.
5. Value and SMID deserve a second look. The broadening thesis may have been interrupted by near-term uncertainty, but the fundamental case for these segments is building quietly. Advisors who add diversification now — before the "believability" moment arrives — position clients ahead of the rotation rather than behind it.
6. The regime has changed. The multiple-expansion, momentum-driven phase of this bull market is giving way to an earnings-driven one. That is a healthier market environment — and one that rewards patient, disciplined positioning over trend-following.
In a market environment crowded with noise, the discipline to follow fundamentals — rather than flinch at headlines — may be the most durable edge an advisor can offer a client right now.
Footnote:
Belski, Brian G., et al. "Follow the Fundamentals." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 20 Apr. 2026.
Belski, Brian G., et al. "A Healthy Market Environment." Belski Briefs, Humilis Investment Strategies, LLC, 27 Apr. 2026.
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