Keeping long-term perspective as the Iran conflict continues

What past military conflicts meant for markets

When geopolitical conflicts emerge, the first step is to step back and consider history to establish context. Often, stock markets have delivered positive returns in the year following major conflicts.⁴ The 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 war between the US and Iraq are often-cited examples.

Investors sometimes point to the Yom Kippur War in 1973 or the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 as cases where markets were lower a year later. In both of those instances, however, the economy was entering the conflict from a position of weakness. In each case, US inflation was above 7% at the outset.⁵ Policy tightening has tended to end business cycles. Geopolitical shocks usually don’t.

US economy at the start of the conflict

Today, we believe the US economy remains in a relative position of strength. Leading indicators released this week, including the ISM Purchasing Managers Manufacturing and Services indexes, showed services continuing to lead and manufacturing recovering toward expansionary territory.⁶ Prices paid within manufacturing were elevated, as expected in an environment shaped by tariffs,⁷ but broader inflation expectations remained contained.⁸ That containment likely gives the Fed room to lower interest rates.

Hiring data for February was weak, influenced by winter storms and disruptions in the health care sector, but the more important signal was the absence of rising layoffs.⁹ A labor market that is weakening but not collapsing keeps monetary policy in play. Taken together, the data likely continue to support risk assets in our view.

Implications of Iran conflict

As we worked through the implications, one scenario stood out as particularly concerning and not implausible. It involved a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a widening conflict that materially disrupted energy production across Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and a sustained increase in oil and natural gas prices. We’d expect such an outcome to undermine economic activity and push inflation higher. The keywords are prolonged and sustained. No one knows how long the current situation will last. At the same time, most investors operate with a time horizon that’s likely to extend well beyond any temporary disruption in energy markets.

There are also clear and established ways to help hedge these risks. Exposure to oil and natural gas may help offset higher energy prices. Other commodities transported through the Strait of Hormuz, including aluminum and grains, may play a similar role. Gold may potentially serve as a hedge against geopolitical risk, and the US dollar may strengthen in periods of global stress. It’s entirely reasonable for investors to manage and hedge these risks within their portfolios.

And yet, we still don’t see the typical signals that mark the end of a business cycle. For example, credit spreads remain tight.¹⁰ The outlook may not feel as comfortable as it did a week ago, and we are looking closely for signs of strain in our preferred indicators.

Keeping a long-term view

The outlook for the year ahead may not feel as comfortable as it did a week ago, and we’re looking closely for signs of strain in our preferred indicators. For now, we hedge risks where appropriate, stay disciplined, and remind ourselves that long-term investing requires sticking with a plan even when the crowd gets nervous.