When Wilfred Frost introduces Helima Croft as “perhaps the most plugged-in person to global energy markets across the world,” it is not hyperbole—it is framing. Croft’s background as a former CIA analyst and current Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets defines the conversation that follows: oil markets can no longer be analyzed through supply-demand spreadsheets alone. Power, politics, and security have re-entered the price formation mechanism.
As Croft puts it early in the discussion, “geopolitics comes roaring back.”
From the CIA to Crude: Why Oil Has Always Been Political
Croft grounds her analytical lens in her time as a CIA analyst, where she was part of the group “looking at worldwide threats to oil disruption.” She explains that before the shale revolution, oil markets were structurally geopolitical:
“Before we had the shale revolution, Western countries were very focused on their dependency on foreign suppliers… you always had to keep an eye on these big producing countries.”
Shale changed that—temporarily. Abundant, short-cycle U.S. supply lulled policymakers and investors into believing spare capacity risk had been neutralized. But Croft argues that assumption is no longer valid.
The Shale Shock—and the Birth of OPEC+
Croft identifies the pivotal inflection point as November 2014, when OPEC chose not to cut production. The intent, she recalls, was to break U.S. shale:
“Their view was that shale would have a break-even in the ’70s… they were not anticipating the sort of resiliency of U.S. shale production.”
Instead, shale survived—and OPEC revenues collapsed. The result was a historic realignment:
“In November 2016… essentially OPEC and the Russians joined together to manage the market… a shotgun marriage driven by shale.”
For Croft, OPEC+ is not a cartel of convenience; it is a geopolitical construct forced into existence by U.S. energy innovation.
Trump, Oil Prices, and the Strategic Use of Energy
One of the most revealing segments of the conversation centers on Donald Trump’s evolving relationship with oil prices. Croft traces a clear shift—from anti-OPEC populism to active market intervention.
During the March–April 2020 price war, Croft recalls shale executives warning:
“President Trump better get these Russians and Saudis back together or the American energy dominance story dies.”
Trump responded by brokering the largest OPEC+ cut in history—over 7 million barrels per day—to stabilize U.S. producers.
Today, however, Croft notes a more troubling dynamic for producers:
“President Trump’s desire for $50 oil does not really meet their medium-term objectives.”
Low energy prices are no longer just about consumers. They are now central to a broader industrial strategy:
“Low energy prices [are] key to the entire Trump agenda… reshoring American jobs… winning the AI race with China.”
Demand Is Not Dead—It Has Changed
Croft challenges simplistic narratives of peak fossil fuel demand. She points directly to AI and data centers as the new marginal driver—particularly for natural gas:
“If you want to look at the bull case for natural gas… the AI race will be determined on who wins the baseload power race.”
The U.S. strategy, she explains, is narrow but powerful—natural gas and nuclear—while China pursues “everything when it comes to every resource.”
This divergence matters for long-term competitiveness.
Venezuela: Oil as Hemisphere Control
Croft frames U.S. interest in Venezuela not as a simple supply story, but as a hemispheric power play:
“Venezuela was seen as an outpost of first Chinese influence… and then increasing Russian influence.”
She details how PDVSA’s collapse was self-inflicted, beginning with Hugo Chávez’s purge of technical talent:
“Twenty thousand PDVSA employees are fired overnight… the national oil company really was hollowed out.”
Rebuilding Venezuelan output is neither quick nor cheap:
“To grow Venezuelan production just by 1 million additional barrels… it’s going to cost $10 billion a year.”
This, Croft argues, makes Venezuela a strategic asset—not a near-term supply solution.
Iran: The Risk That Still Isn’t Priced In
On Iran, Croft is explicit: markets are complacent.
She contrasts 2019—when Iran directly attacked regional oil infrastructure—with recent restraint:
“If we can’t sell our oil, no one’s going to be able to sell their oil in the region.”
Today, however, she warns that escalation could look very different if regime survival is threatened:
“If we were to… capture or kill the Supreme Leader… the Iranian response would be much more formidable.”
The implication: the oil market is pricing calm into a fundamentally unstable geopolitical setup.
Russia, Europe, and the Myth of Normalization
Croft firmly rejects the idea that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal would restore pre-war energy flows:
“Even if the war ends tomorrow, they do not want to go back to that position of dependency.”
Europe’s energy strategy, she argues, has permanently shifted.
China’s Strategic Stockpiling: Demand With Intent
One of Croft’s most underappreciated insights concerns China’s oil buying behavior:
“They’ve been massively building out their storage capabilities.”
Senior U.S. officials, she notes, believe this is strategic—not commercial:
“They are… preparing for conflict with the United States.”
Chinese demand, in this framing, is acting as an implicit price floor.
The Price Outlook: Calm or Crisis
Croft’s conclusion is deliberately conditional:
“If you strip out all the geopolitics… WTI prices, high 50s… Brent, low 60s.”
But geopolitics cannot be stripped out.
“If we are entering a period of escalation, disruption, that’s when you think about prices higher from here.”
The Meta-Lesson: Question Your Assumptions
Croft closes with a lesson drawn from intelligence work rather than markets:
“The biggest analytic mistake… is when you thought that somebody else saw the world the way you did.”
For investors, that may be the most actionable takeaway of all.
Advisor Takeaway
Energy markets are no longer governed by marginal cost curves alone. They are shaped by statecraft, strategic stockpiling, industrial policy, and security risk. The mistake is not being bearish or bullish—it is assuming the world is quieter than it is.
Footnote:
1 Development, PodBean. "Oil as a Weapon: Helima Croft on How Geopolitics Moves Markets | The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost." 8 Feb. 2026.
