The Unexpected Resilience of Canada, Global Markets
Despite persistent macro headwinds—from geopolitical tension to trade volatility—markets have proven remarkably robust in 2025. While the mainstream narrative has leaned toward caution, the AGF panel delivered a decidedly more constructive take1.
"I think the thing that surprised me… is the resiliency in this market [Canada]," says John Christofilos. "With everything that's happening… this market continues to outperform my expectations. I would have thought we would have checked back a little bit here. It still may happen, but to this point, it's been very, very resilient."
Mike Archibald agrees, adding, "You keep looking at the front page of the news and it's nothing but negativity… yet TSX all-time high, the DAX all-time high, the UK market, almost all-time high. These are not things that are going to happen when you generally have something bad on the immediate horizon."
Even with looming summer seasonality and liquidity thinning out, both Archibald and Christofilos expect only a modest pullback. "We probably gyrate a little bit here in the summer and then get into the good seasonal period in the fall," Archibald forecasts.
Commodities: From Forgotten to Front Page
While equities have surprised to the upside, commodities—particularly oil—have entered a new chapter. Sabharwal explains the key inflection points: "You saw Liberation Day come and the threat of tariffs… oil touching 50s all the way from 70s. That strength you saw in 2024 got washed away. But the market came to a realization that there is an off ramp."
Echoing Archibald's earlier macro comment, Sabharwal agrees that the worst of the trade disruption may be priced in. "What you saw was essentially… the worst of the tariff threat… there's going to be a little bit more certainty. And that's where oil has started recovering."
Adding fuel to the fire? A familiar geopolitical wildcard. "You throw some geopolitics in there with the resurgence of the conflict in the Middle East, and that has a leg of its own."
But the panel was clear: even missile exchanges between Israel and Iran aren't triggering the price reactions seen decades ago.
[Update: In the few days since June 18, when this conversation was recorded, the US has escalated it's involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, with it's strategic bombing of 3 Iranian nuclear facilities, which may alter the course of events and market reaction further. Following this escalation over the June 21 weekend, WTI oil prices rose as high as $74, Brent as high as $79. As of the morning of June 24, with a fragile truce announced, WTI has returned to around $67.50, Brent to $69.50.]"If we would have seen missiles flying from Israel into Iran and then flying back… the price of oil would have gone from, let's call it at the time $60 to $150," says Christofilos. "We saw a move from 60 to 72, $73… Why not the same reaction today?"
Sabharwal pointed to structural changes: "US is the largest producer by far of oil. That obviously takes a lot of the influence away from OPEC." He adds, "They've also invested heavily in infrastructure redundancy. In 2019, 2 million barrels a day went offline and it was repaired within a week."
Canada's Resource Edge: A Rare Opportunity
The conversation quickly turns north, as Christofilos probes Canada's role in the global energy equation.
"The relationship is perhaps as important as it has ever been," Sabharwal emphasizes. "If you look at Canadian exports into the U.S., they've been growing every year for the past decade… you need heavy oil for a lot of the things that you relied on Venezuela, Mexico, the international market for."
Canada's long-term edge? Reserves. "The U.S. has a reserve life index of about 10 to 13 years… Canada has 40–50 years. It's a very easy picture to get around," says Sabharwal.
"And the pricing works for them too, does it not?" Christofilos asked.
"Absolutely does," Sabharwal replies.
The strategic significance isn't lost on refiners either: "PADD 2, which is the Chicago area, almost 100% of the imports that they have are Canadian. Gulf Coast… has been using more and more Canadian crude."
Energy Investing: Quality Over Hype
Archibald raises a crucial investor lens: "Energy has been hated… still can't go. Stocks [have] not [been] participating?"
Sabharwal agrees—though cautiously. "I find that rotation [into E&Ps] a little bit tougher to get into… I feel quality is the theme. Stick to quality. Stick to [names] that can outlast any disruption or choppy oil markets."
He also highlights hedging behaviour that underscored producer skepticism: "Last week when oil shot up, a lot of these producers actually went into the hedging market and started hedging like crazy. They also know this year, maybe next year, are going to be a little bit rough."
Archibald was more optimistic over time: "These are now investments that you can make, put into your portfolio, and not have to worry about gold price falling $100 or energy price going down [that much]. That's not happening anymore."
The Great Commodity Repricing: Gold, Silver, and the Industrial Complex
Pivoting into a commodity "lightning round," Pett asks for thoughts on gold.
Christofilos is quick: "Love it."
"I'm not going to put a number on it," he adds, "but I feel very comfortable that they're stockpiling. You can see the numbers, right? The numbers don't lie."
Archibald elaborates: "Government buying, inflation hedge. The companies that produce gold are making money like they've never made before. Lower US dollar. All very constructive."
Silver's breakout? "Huge," says Archibald. "There are 3, 4, 5 real big ones [producers] in North America… We think this continues to be an asset class that you want to pay attention to."
Christofilos adds that the gold-silver price spread is narrowing: "The differential… was at historic highs. That's got to close… I think silver longer term may outperform gold."
On platinum and palladium, Archibald clarifies their industrial demand base: "They're used in catalytic converters… part of the broader economy. So I look at that as another positive sign."
Natural Gas: The Underappreciated Star
Finally, the panel closes with their top contrarian bet: natural gas.
"The supply-demand situation in natural gas is as good as it's been in years," says Archibald. "You've seen CapEx intentions in the US start to pick up again from the Mag-7 names… How are you going to power those data centers? Everyone likes to think it's uranium… but shorter term, it's natural gas."
Sabharwal agreed: "You're going to export all this cheap natural gas, get global pricing for it… The U.S. export capacity is more than doubling over the next five years. Canada is looking into investing more and more… It [too] is an easy story to get behind."
He adds: "Natural gas is here. It's immediate, cleaner, much more cost effective. So it makes a lot of sense on all fronts."
Foreign Flows and the Canadian Moment
Perhaps most surprisingly, Canada is back in the spotlight for global investors.
"A month or so, maybe six weeks ago, we started to see a lot more incoming calls from U.S. and international broker dealers… international investment into Canada has finally ticked up," Christofilos observes. "Canadians can't support Canada on our own. We need international investment."
He sees a two-fold driver: "One, there has been some removal of capital out of the U.S… Canada [on the other hand] is a safe environment. And second, I think Prime Minister Carney has surprised to the upside on his business acumen."
Archibald sees it translating to M&A: "This environment has not been very constructive for foreign capital to come in and acquire Canadian companies… but certainty on the political front… opens the door for more foreign investment into Canada."
Conclusion: Markets Forward, Canada Rising
Between commodity comebacks, market resilience, and a shifting geopolitical landscape, this conversation with the AGF team delivers a rare dose of clarity: Canada's resources, political tone shift, and balance sheet strength are creating a generational opportunity for investors.
As Archibald puts it: "If you think that 2026 looks better than 2025… there's no way that energy can't participate in that."
For an asset class once left for dead, the new cycle has just begun.
Footnotes:
1 AGF Inside Perspectives. Podcast. "Hot Spots and Hot Commodities." 18 June 2025.
