India Breaks Away From the Pack: The Only Major Market Rising While Global Equities Sink

In the latest monthly performance of global ETFs, India clearly stood out as the top performer, with the FLIN ETF gaining an impressive 4.25%. This made it the strongest market across all regions and a notable outlier in a month where most global equities faced downward pressure. In North America, the results were mixed. Mexico (FLMX) managed to edge higher with a gain of 0.99%, showing some resilience. However, both Canada (FLCA) and the United States (FLQL) posted declines, down -2.06% and -5.71% respectively, reflecting broader concerns in the developed markets of the region. Latin America saw relatively mild fluctuations. Brazil (FLBR) was nearly flat, slipping just -0.19%, while Peru (EPU) recorded a modest decline of -0.50%. Argentina (ARGT), on the other hand, experienced a more pronounced drop of -6.72%, signaling a divergence in performance within the region. Over in Europe, the picture was mostly negative. Poland (EPOL) was a rare bright spot, gaining 0.98%, but the rest of the region was in the red. Major economies such as Germany (FLGR), France (EWQ), and Italy (EWI) saw losses ranging from -6% to nearly -8%. Peripheral and emerging European markets fared even worse, with Sweden (EWD) down -11.39% and Turkey (TUR) falling -11.94%. Asia experienced some of the sharpest declines globally. China Mainland (FLCH) and Hong Kong (FLHK) led the losses with drops of -14.84% and -13.71%, respectively. Other markets including Taiwan (FLTW), South Korea (FLKR), Japan (FLJP), and Thailand (THD) also posted significant declines. Against this backdrop, India’s positive performance was particularly notable, highlighting its relative strength and investor confidence in an otherwise challenging environment for the region.

Given the outperformance that India has demonstrated over the past month—especially against a backdrop of negative performance in most equity markets—let's take a moment to review the chart of the iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDA), which is currently trading at $51.05. Shares of INDA broke through resistance at $45 late in 2024 and rallied up to $58 before encountering selling pressure, with resistance ultimately forming around the $59.73 level. In the early months of 2025, the shares pulled back to the $48 level before buyers regained control, establishing support at $47.09 on this 2% scaled point-and-figure chart. Resistance is now marked at $54.10, $59.73, and $64.65, while support zones are noted at $47.09 and the original breakout zone of $44.38. Further signs of strength come from the SIA SMAX scoring, which currently rates INDA at 8 out of a best possible score of 10. This is a near-term measure of relative strength against other asset classes and equity alternatives, further underscoring INDA's continued outperformance on a relative basis.

Another important update is regarding the SIA Market Bullish Percent Index, which, by any measure, is washed out—especially after the sell-off earlier in the week and the persistent broad-based declines in March. The reading dropped as low as 8%, meaning that the reciprocal 92% completed double-bottom sell signals on their individual point-and-figure charts. Such a low historical reading is rare and is typically seen as a "washed-out" scenario, which, in this case, turned out to be true as markets rallied significantly, driven by this technically oversold condition.The Bullish Percent Index is a breadth indicator that shows the percentage of stocks in a given index or market that are currently in a bullish trend, as defined by a point-and-figure buy signal. A low reading, like the 8% seen earlier, suggests that a large majority of stocks are in bearish trends, which can often signal an oversold market ripe for a reversal. This is because extreme readings tend to indicate that many stocks are "out of favor," and a potential rebound can occur as the market moves from oversold conditions back toward equilibrium.Given the massive rally yesterday, many of these stocks have now moved back to a double-top buy signal on their point-and-figure charts. The bullish percent reading has now climbed to 46%, and the following calculation (100% - 46% = 54%) illustrates just how many of these charts have flipped to a positive stance. A bullish percent reading of 46% suggests a recovery in sentiment, but it's not yet at the level where the market can be considered fully overbought (which would typically happen at higher readings, closer to 80%). Still, it's a significant shift, showing that a substantial portion of the market has turned more favorable, and the technical picture is improving.While this measure is just one piece of technical data, it can be taken together with other relative strength readings to capture the money flows that are currently in motion within the markets. The bullish percent index is often used in conjunction with other indicators, such as moving averages or momentum-based metrics, to give a clearer picture of whether the market is poised for a sustained move higher or if it may be overextended. By combining these factors, investors can better assess the overall health of the market and its potential trajectory in the near term.