As geopolitical storms brew and policy signals blur, markets have found themselves navigating an increasingly volatile terrain. In a engaging webcast1 hosted by WisdomTree, four seasoned market mindsâProfessor Jeremy Siegel, Global CIO, Jeremy Schwartz, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Kevin Flanagan, and Macro Strategist, Sam Rinesâbreak down the current macroeconomic environment with refreshing candor, tactical insight, and pointed political realism. The conversation revolves around Trumpâs escalating tariff policies, potential Fed reactions, and what it all means for investors now and going forward.
Hereâs the full landscape, decoded.
Tariffs: A âSelf-Inflicted Woundâ with Long-Term Scars
Professor Siegel gets right to the point. The newly announced tariffs are âa self-inflicted wound, an unforced errorâ and ânot going to cure the situation... but itâll moderate it,â he warns. And while political analysts might speculate on Trumpâs motivations, Siegel sees clear economic consequences. âWeâre not at a bear market yet. We could be⌠If we see retaliation, as we've seen from China... bear market is quite likely.â
Despite a robust employment backdrop, Siegel cautions that âdeteriorating rapidlyâ is the phrase that now defines U.S. economic momentum. And he isnât alone in that view. Sam Rines points out that âthe more uncertainty you inject into the system, the more youâre going to have multiples compress,â ultimately creating a âwider band around expected earningsâ.
In short: policy uncertainty is dragging valuation confidence lower.
Fed Forecasting: Donât Trust the Dots, Watch the Direction
Siegel is especially keen to clear up misconceptions about Fed futures: âThey're not unbiased,â he clarifies, predicting âprobably about three cuts by the end of the year.â More importantly, he says, the Fed âshould cutâno matter what the inflationary effect of this tariff is,â since tariffs distort inflation signals and blur economic indicators.
Citing a money supply growth rate of just 4% (historically closer to 5.5%), Siegel makes the case that the Fed has ample room to lower rates without fueling inflation: âWe can afford to increase money by lowering rates. How do you increase money? You lower rates. That encourages loan demand.â But, he adds, âloan demand will shrink if the economy shrinks,â reinforcing the case for action.
Market Math: Still Rational Underneath the Chaos
In the professorâs signature valuation logic, he reminds investors that markets typically overreact. âIf you wipe out earnings for two years⌠the answer is 10% [drop in value]... Not 20% or 30%,â he says, emphasizing the importance of perspective over panic.
He offered some powerful back-of-the-envelope math: âA 20 PE ratio is a 5% real return. With 3% inflation, thatâs about an 8% return for equities... The 10-year is below 4%... Youâve got a nice equity premium now.â
Yet he also warns that the âhistory of the market is overreaction, always,â and that fearâespecially about the unknown long-term impact of policyâtends to exaggerate short-term price moves.
Risk Sectors, Rotations, and Snapbacks
When asked about portfolio strategy, Siegel acknowledges the âreversal of the growth value trendâ in recent weeks, a rotation he believes has been âaccelerated by the tariff talk.â But lower rates may give dividend stocks new life: âWhat would you rather have, a 3% Treasury⌠or a 3% dividend yield of a stock at a reasonable price?â
Still, he is realistic about recession risk: âThe probability of recession has definitely gone up,â meaning even dividend names must be screened for durability. âThose that have been dividend yield cut-resistant through economic cycles might do extremely well during this period.â
He also warns against being too clever with timing: âTo move your clients more towards cash or bonds and [then] he tweets one thing⌠you're going to miss 2,000 points on the Dow in 10 minutes.â
Mag-7âs Decline: More Than Just Beta
Siegel tackles the sell-off in the Magnificent 7 head-on: âTheir beta is greater than one... but [thereâs also] a breakdown of the AI narrative,â he says. âAre the moats that give them the margins that are so high still attainable in the long run?â He floats the idea that firms like BYD could become âa rival for the Blackwell chip,â potentially undermining dominant U.S. tech names.
Itâs not that AI is going away. But if margin moats narrow, so too do stock valuations.
Tariffs and the Political Minefield
Beyond the economics, Siegel offers a sobering civics lesson. He explained that while 51 senators had voted against the tariffs, overturning Trumpâs policies would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override a veto: âThat could be three, four months⌠but itâs not an impossible route.â
Still, he sees the political clock ticking. âIf these tariffs take effect and the prices rise⌠it's going to be fixed in people's minds. âI don't like Trump's tariff policy.ââ He adds, âThat's not good for the Republicans in the midterm.â Ultimately, he believes Trump will seek an off-ramp and âtrump that up as a victoryâ if the polling turns negative.
Global Watch: Germany, Japan, and the Rest
On the international front, Siegel sees a silver lining in Europeâs newfound urgency: âThey needed a kick in the pants... Thatâs a positive.â As for Japan? âIt is the oldest society trying to get back its mojo,â he says, stopping short of a bold call.
Sam Rines, however, offers a sharper lens, noting Japanâs corporate foresight: âThe Japanese market is different than the Japanese economy⌠They very much stepped out and said, âWe would much rather have the demographics of Kentucky than Tokyo.ââ Companies like Toyota and Suzuki, he says, diversified their earnings exposure well ahead of this moment.
He flags other likely early negotiators on tariffs: âIndia, Mexico, Japan, South Korea⌠likely to know what the Trump administration is looking for and pretty easily get a minor stamp of approval pretty quickly.â Argentina may have made the first call, but âitâs just not a large enough economy⌠to move the needle.â
Bonds: Useful Now, Problematic Later
Kevin Flanagan raises a key fixed income question, which Siegel answers with characteristic clarity: âThey'll cushion your short-term portfolio... but they are not great long-term investments and never have been.â
Indeed, while bonds serve as a hedge, especially in moments like these, Siegel urges clients to remain anchored in equities. âThe main thing is keeping your people in the market,â he emphasizes. âWhen this period of volatility is over... I donât think 3% bonds are going to last.â
Final Word: Stay the CourseâBut Know the Gameboard
For long-term investors, the message is clear: volatility is not new, nor is it fatal. From policy blunders to political brinksmanship, Siegel, Schwartz, Rines, and Flanagan paint a picture of a market at a crossroadsâbut not without a compass.
As Siegel concludes, âStocks are the longest-term asset⌠this is a great long-term hold.â Just donât blink when the Dow jumps 2,000 points in ten minutes.
Because in this cycle, tweets can be catalystsâand patience is premium.
1 WisdomTree. "Professor Siegel on Trump's Tariffs Impact." 4 Apr. 2025, www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/videos/professor-siegel-on-trumps-tariffs-impact.