In today’s report, we analyzed the SIA S&P 100 Index Report and sorted the data by monthly and quarterly relative strength decliners to identify areas that are losing momentum or becoming a potential drag on the overall markets. The results were surprising. The table above illustrates the 10 biggest relative strength decliners, with three of these names being part of the Magnificent 7, which were the stars of the 2024 market rally.
As we move into the middle of Q1 2025, several of these names may be signaling an early warning, as money flows appear to be shifting elsewhere. Nvidia Corp (NVDA) tops the list of relative strength decliners, followed closely by General Motors (GM). Despite posting a 32.81% gain over the past year, PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) has suffered a decline of -6.14% in the first month of 2025. Notably, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Apple Inc. (AAPL), both part of the Magnificent 7, also appear on the list of top decliners. An unexpected inclusion is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), which ranks 8th on the list. Although its return over the past month is positive, it may be in transition, especially given its now negative SIA SMAX score of 5.
The Point and Figure (PNF) chart presented is a textbook example of how PNF charts allow advisors to monitor long-term trend lines. For seasoned technical analysts, it is striking how stocks tend to revert to the mean, either bouncing off a down-sloping trend line or correcting back to a positive trend line—an occurrence that might be seen with Tesla (see daily stock report from November 14, 2024). In the case of PayPal, the stock broke past resistance at $69 in 2024 and moved up toward the trend line, but it now appears to be finding new resistance along a negative trend at $93.11, just short of the resistance that whole numbers like $100 may have on investor psychology. More importantly, any relative strength PayPal exhibited late last year was short-lived, and the shares have now sunk to the bottom of the SIA S&P 100 Index Report. PayPal is currently at support around $76.38, with additional support levels at $69.18-$65.19.
To provide a broader view of PayPal’s trading history, we’ve included a monthly candlestick chart. This chart clearly shows the massive share price run-up in 2021, when shares reached $300, but this rally has since dissipated. The share price is now stuck below long-term resistance at approximately $75, with shorter-term support at the $60-$65 range. The rally that began late last year is losing steam, as reflected in the diminishing volume, highlighted by a thin black line. Currently, PayPal carries a negative SIA SMAX score of 5 out of 10, reflecting weak relative strength against other asset classes, in addition to the analysis captured in the SIA S&P 100 Index Report.
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