Shares of MOS fell from grace in the SIA S&P 500 Index Report on October 31st, 2022, at a price of $53.75, signaling to SIA practitioners that the relative performance enjoyed by MOS investors was slipping away, as illustrated in the attached SIA matrix position chart. Since then, its relative underperformance has intensified, with shares dropping to current levels around $24.67, representing a staggering decline of over 45%, not accounting for the opportunity cost of better opportunities that manifested in the SIA favored zone during this period. The first candlestick chart attached shows a weekly view with the SIA overlay tool, highlighting the damage done by continuing to hold this deeply unfavored position, despite the SIA platform’s consistent avoidance of investments in the unfavored zone in favor of higher-graded opportunities. The technical picture remains weak, with the SIA SMAX score still at 1 out of the best score of 10, and MOS resides within the SIA Chemicals sector, which is also in the Unfavored zone of the SIA Market Sectors Report. In short, MOS shares are among the worst relative performers in one of the weakest-performing sectors. While equities are still outperforming bonds, providing some relative strength, if equities lose their strength against bonds, MOS would be in a highly vulnerable position, making it one of the worst risk/reward options.
To obtain support and resistance data, the SIA point-and-figure chart is used, where the underperformance is evident with the color-coded chart, showing its fall from a lofty level in late 2023. After being a strong stock from 2020 to 2022, MOS has now penetrated new support levels, recently pushing past $25.95. Finding new support is challenging without extending the chart to a longer-term range, where $21.29 becomes significant, with additional support at $19.28. If the stock makes a decisive move to the upside, four red ovals of resistance from 2016 may act as levels for selling pressure from current owners eager to exit a losing position. This level is also consistent with the negative trend line at $31.01 on the high end and $26.47 on the low end, where red lines of resistance have been drawn. Advisors are encouraged to carefully examine the power of SIA’s big data analytics and make a New Year’s resolution to be mindful of these relative strength pitfalls. With proper training and assistance from SIA’s software trainers, advisors can quickly and easily avoid situations like MOS in client portfolios and elevate their investment strategies. Top SIA practitioners have reported how these tools have improved client relationships and confidence, leading to faster asset growth and increased referrals.
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