SIA Charts' relative strength rankings help investors identify opportunities in stocks that are outperforming their peers or index benchmarks. Outperformance typically signals improving investor expectations for strong company or sector growth. Meanwhile, underperformance in the SIA Relative Strength (RS) matrix often reflects deteriorating expectations that investors have for a company’s or sector’s outlook, and this low RS often supersedes negative news announcements or, put another way, 'the WHY.' Our strategy encourages investors to hold only investments with high relative strength and avoid those showing weakness compared to peers and other asset classes. To illustrate this, let’s examine Intel Corp. (INTC) and its movement within the relative strength matrix. By reviewing the candlestick chart and the point-and-figure chart, we can provide context and guidance for those navigating INTC. Yesterday, chip giant Intel reported its second-quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday, missing on the top and bottom lines and announcing a $10 billion cost reduction plan to cut 15% of its workforce and suspend dividend payments. INTC's stock price is down almost 30% in early trading, pouring cold water on the broader market with the S&P down 2% and NASDAQ shaving off 2.25%. Could this news have been anticipated by those using the SIA INTEL? Turning to the relative strength matrix, we see that INTC has been in the Unfavored Red Zone of the SIA S&P 100 Index Report for most of the past several years, with a brief three-month period in the Favored Green Zone during the technology boom earlier this year. Apart from this short-lived strength, INTC has been overshadowed by numerous better-performing portfolio candidates. Even before today's significant selloff, INTC shares were down 41.79% year-to-date, while its peers were hitting new highs. Though INTC was afloat during the technology boom, it was listing to starboard and was among the first to sink as market conditions worsened. Examining the weekly candlestick chart, we see declining peaks at $60 and $50 and a subsequent selloff through support (now resistance) at $37-$40. By the time earnings season arrived, INTC was already in a precarious position. Support levels at $26 and $23 now appear to be breached as INTC currently trades near $21, a support level dating back to 2012. The bottom of this 2012 support zone is at $13.80. The current price range is $20.39 at support and $24.79 at resistance. A break below $20.39 would shift the range to $13.80-$20.79.
The point-and-figure charts present a similar scenario but clarify critical levels more distinctly. Resistance is noted at $63 and $49, with lower peaks even during the brief stint in the Favored Green Zone. Support at $24.43 has become resistance now that this level has been breached, with further resistance at $30.38. Long-term support is at $20.44, with additional support at $13.76. With a SMAX score of 0 out of 10 (a near-term indicator comparing an asset against various asset classes), INTC currently shows no short-term performance across asset classes and is unlikely to fare better once the SIA AI platform completes its analysis later today, once the dust settles.
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