Pre-opening Comments for Monday March 13th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures weakened despite regulatory authorities taking control of Silicon Valley Bank after the bank experienced a run on its assets.
First Republic Bank plunged $49.26 to $32.50 on solvency concerns.
Seagen advanced $31.79 to $204.40 after Pfizer offered to acquire the company at $229 per share cash. Value of the offer is estimated at $43 billion.
Under Armour slipped $0.06 to $8.85 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral.
JD.com dropped $0.33 to $40.14 after Susquehanna cut its target price from $62 to $45.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Treasury bond funds increasingly carving out significant bottoming patterns, showing performance akin to past pre-recessionary periods”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/03/11/stock-market-outlook-for-march-13-2023/
The Bottom Line
Focus this week is on U.S. economic news (CPI on Tuesday and PPI/Retail Sales on Wednesday) as well as fall out from failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
A spike in the VIX Index was notable on Friday when the news on Silicon Valley Bank was released.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Earnings estimates for 2023 continued to move slightly lower and revenue estimates continued to move slightly higher. According to www.factset.com first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 6.1% (versus previous decrease of 5.9%) but revenues are expected to increase 2.0% (versus previous increase of 1.9%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 3.9% and revenues are expected to increase 0.1%.(versus previous decrease of 0.1%) Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.7% (versus a previous increase of 2.9%) and revenues are expected to increase 1.6% (versus previous increase of 1.4%). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 9.6% and revenues are expected to increase 3.8% (versus previous increase of 3.2%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 1.9% (versus previous increase of 2.1%) and revenues are expected to increase 2.1% (versus previous increase of 2.0%)
Economic News This Week
Source: www.investing.com
February Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.5% in January. On a year-over-year basis, February CPI is expected to increase 6.0% versus a gain of 6.4% in January. Excluding food and energy, February Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in January. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI is expected to increase 5.5% versus an increase of 5.6% in January.
February Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.7% in January. On a year-over-year basis February PPI is expected to increase 5.5% versus 6.0% in January. Excluding food and energy, February Producer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.5% in January. On a year-over-year basis, core PPI is expected to increase 4.9% versus a gain of 5.4% in January.
February Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to decrease 012% versus a gain of 3.0% in January. Excluding auto sales, February Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 2.3% in January.
March Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to be -7.50 versus -5.80 in February.
January Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.3% in December.
February Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 1,305.000 units from 1,309,000 units in January
March Philly Fed released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to be -7.4 versus -24.3 in February.
February Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 78.5 from 78.3 in January. February Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.4% versus unchanged in January.
March Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from February at 67.0.
Selected Earnings Reports This Week
Source: www.investing.com
Four S&P 500 companies and three TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report this week.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 11th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Greg Schnell says “Wobble, Wobble”
Wobble, Wobble | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com
Erin Swenlin: “Will plunging markets continue”?
Will Plunging Markets Continue? | Erin Swenlin | The Final Bar (03.10.23) – YouTube
Negative News Reverses Uptrend | Mary Ellen McGonagle | The MEM Edge (03.10.23)
Negative News Reverses Uptrend | Mary Ellen McGonagle | The MEM Edge (03.10.23) – YouTube
Mark Leibovit comment on March 10th
https://www.howestreet.com/2023/03/crude-oil-us-dollar-gold-silver-bitcoin-mark-leibovit/
Bob Hoye says “Collapsed Silicon Valley is a classic failure”
Collapsed Silicon Valley Bank a “Classic” Failure – HoweStreet
Josef Schachter says “Stock market could collapse 15-20% more”
Stock Market Could Collapse 15-20% More – HoweStreet
Victor Adair’s Trading Notes for March 11th
Trading Desk Notes For March 11, 2023 – HoweStreet
Links offered by Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
Explaining the Inverted Yield Curve & Why It Matters – Uncommon Sense Investor
Five Reasons These Three Companies Will Benefit from ChatGPT – Uncommon Sense Investor
Silicon Valley Bank failure raises fear of broader financial contagion – The Washington Post
The 12 Best Stocks to Buy Now | Kiplinger
Ross Clark, Martin Armstrong and Victor Adair
Technical Scoop by David Chapman and www.enrichedinvesting.com
Technical Notes for Friday
U.S. sector charts breaking intermediate support on Friday:
Materials SPDR $XLB moved below$78.87 completing a double top pattern.
Financial SPDRs $XLF moved below intermediate support at $33.19
Industrial SPDRs $XLI moved support at $99.40
Dow Jones Transportation Average iShares completed a double top pattern.
U.S. industry ETFs breaking intermediate support on Friday:
U.S. Brokers iShares $ moved below intermediate support at $94.10
Auto ETF $CARZ moved below $47.08 completing a double top pattern.
Medical Devices iShares $IHI moved below intermediate support at $50.98
Steel ETF $SLX moved below intermediate support at $63.63
Timber iShares $WOOD moved below $72.21 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
S&P 100 stocks that moved below intermediate support/extended an intermediate downtrend included SLB, GS, USB, WFC, NKE, CVX, XOM, SPG, FDX, MMM and CAT
NASDAQ 100 stocks that moved below intermediate support/extended an intermediate downtrend included DOCU, INTU, EA, KLAC and IDXX
TSX 60 stocks that moved below intermediate support/extended an intermediate downtrend included TD, SLF, WEED, BN, MRU and SAP
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 9.00 on Friday and 36.20 last week to 17.60. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Down trend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 6.00 on Friday and 21.40 last week to 43.80. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a move below 60.00. Downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 11.49 on Friday and 31.49 last week to 28.51. It changed from Overbought to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Down trend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.68 on Friday and 13.61 last week to 52.77. It changed form Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Down trend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
