Roe v. Wade Leak Scrambles November Election

May 3, 2022

4 minute read

Insights and Market Perspectives

IN A BOMBSHELL THAT SHOOK THIS CITY during the night, the Supreme Court has apparently reached a consensus to overturn Roe v. Wade — setting the stage for an epic controversy that could scramble the November elections.

DEMOCRATS HAD BEEN BRACING for steep House losses this fall, but suddenly they have an issue that could energize their base. Roughly 60% of Americans support some types of abortion rights.

BUT THE COURT’S CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY apparently agrees with the author of the opinion, Justice Samuel Alito, who said in a leaked opinion that “Roe was egregiously wrong from the start. Its reasoning was exceptionally weak, and the decision has had damaging consequences.”

REPUBLICANS WE TALKED WITH LATE LAST NIGHT insisted that this stunning development actually could help them. This is an enormous issue within the GOP base. But the prospect of a nationwide ban — unthinkable just a few years ago — will galvanize voters in states like Wisconsin, where anti-abortion Sen. Ron Johnson (R) now has an unwelcome complication to his re-election bid.

THIS COUNTRY ALREADY WAS BITTERLY DIVIDED over Covid restrictions, what’s taught to kids in schools, illegal immigration, etc. — but this pending abortion fight will eclipse all other issues. Democrats must be grateful for a topic that will divert attention away from inflation and the volatile markets.

THE KEY ISSUE, WE BELIEVE, is whether anti-abortion activists will seek a total ban on the procedure or a ban when a heartbeat can be detected. Other issues — including bans even in cases of rape or incest — undoubtedly will be emotionally debated. And the availability of a “morning after” pill will become crucial.

BOTTOM LINE: This could lead to a ferocious push-back from women who feel that their rights will be violated. Huge demonstrations in major cities are inevitable. If Republicans over-play their hand, the November election could become a referendum on abortion — which, polls indicate, would not help the GOP.

FOR NOW we still think the House will flip to the Republicans, but perhaps not in a blowout, with the Senate a bit more likely to stay under narrow Democratic control. It will take several days or weeks for a consensus to form on how strict a ban might be, but one conclusion appears to be inescapable: anti-abortion forces clearly have the upper hand in the Supreme Court.

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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.