by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
AT THE CENTER OF THIS CONTROVERSY is GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell, who blasted the Republican National Committee’s claim that the Jan. 6 Capitol riot was “legitimate political discourse.” This assertion has infuriated many GOP Senators, who won backing yesterday from McConnell.
THE SENATE MINORITY LEADER described the attack as a “violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, after a legitimately-certified election, from one administration to the next.”
THE PARTY SEEMS TO BE SPLITTING IN TWO, between the generally pro-Trump House and the increasingly anti-Trump Senate. The latter group is moving toward compromises: a massive funding bill for the Post Office may pass soon, as will an agreement on a budget reconciliation measure, extending federal funding through March 11, avoiding a government shutdown when the current extension expires on Feb. 18. The next bill will contain more spending for defense, a McConnell priority.
WE TALKED WITH A REPUBLICAN STAFFER YESTERDAY who explained the party’s frustration: every day consumed by bitter accusations over Jan. 6 is a day that the party isn’t focusing on a long list of campaign issues — urban crime, illegal immigration, inflation, etc.
REPUBLICANS STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE of capturing the House, but not by 25 to 35 seats, as the party hoped. And the Senate looks like a close call; McConnell suffered a setback yesterday when moderate Republican Larry Hogan said he would not run for the Senate, preferring to stay as Maryland governor. Hogan probably will run for president in 2024.
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HEAT WAVE: An unprecedented February heat wave is about to afflict attendees at this Sunday’s Super Bowl in Los Angeles. The National Weather Service has warned of “dangerously hot conditions” by late this week, with temperatures possibly up to 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius).
LOS ANGELES rarely has February temperatures this hot; the city has recorded only seven 90-degree days during the winter since 1948. The last time it
happened was Jan. 31, 2003, when the high was 91 degrees. Average highs in Los Angeles at this time of the year are only about 65 degrees.
THIS HEAT WAVE WOULD COME AFTER the second driest January in the state’s recorded history; after a very wet December, California’s drought appears to be back. Climate change will be an issue to watch this year — most voters feel politicians aren’t doing enough, and a February heat wave will revive calls to do more.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
