by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
November 24, 2021
A Signal That Donald Trump Will Run Again;
Names Floated for Fed Vacancies
November 24, 2021
DONALD TRUMP ISN’T IN A RUSH to announce his candidacy for president in 2024, but he specializes in teasing it and keeping other Republicans away from challenging him. This will be clear on Dec. 2 at his Mar-a-Lago resort, when his political action committee holds its biggest fundraiser ever.
THIS COMES AS POLITICO and other sources report that Trump is already polltaking in key states that made the difference last fall — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia. Not surprisingly, his polltakers report he has leads in all five of those states, which Trump lost a year ago.
WE’RE HEARING THAT TRUMP wants to crush any rebellion in the party, in the wake of Glenn Youngkin’s stunning victory in Virginia; Youngkin barely mentioned Trump’s name during the campaign, which could be a signal to other GOP candidates that they can win races without help from the former president. In private, many Republicans say he’s radioactive, but in public they generally stay quiet on issues like the Jan. 6 riot.
TRUMP FACES AN AVALANCHE of litigation in the next few years. He’s famous for dragging out cases with appeal after appeal, and he surely can persuade his base that criminal or civil charges are simply part of a “witch hunt.”
EVEN IF TRUMP’S NOMINATION in 2024 is hotly contested, he’s the early favorite; he’s already sending shots at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who could be Trump’s strongest challenger. (Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who leads the “let’s move on” chorus, would get crushed.)
WE’VE BEEN SKEPTICAL THAT TRUMP WILL RUN for one major reason: his chances of winning a general election look shaky because he’s so polarizing with moderates. But if that dynamic is shifting, watch out.
TRUMP IS 75 AND NOW and whether he has the energy to run is unclear. He seems to have more energy than Joe Biden, 79, who makes Democrats in this town nervous. Can Biden win all five of those battleground states in 2024? He couldn’t today.
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THERE ARE THREE MORE FED OPENINGS that the Biden Administration will attempt to fill during the winter, and trial balloons already have been floated. These nominations will be especially crucial for economic policy, because the House seems likely to flip back to the Republicans next fall.
MAKING A DIVERSITY STATEMENT: Two of the leading contenders are gay, three are African-American and all would be expected to be aggressive on regulatory policy, especially on environmental issues. Monetary policy would continue to be moderately accommodative despite a possible speed-up in the Fed’s tapering of asset purchases.
THE CANDIDATES INCLUDE Mary Daly, the San Francisco Fed President, and Raphael Bostic, the Atlanta Fed President; both are openly gay. Three candidates are African-American: Bostic, plus the AFL-CIO’s chief economist, William Spriggs, and Lisa Cook, a former senior economist in the Obama administration, currently at Michigan State University.
THE MARKETS WILL MOST CLOSELY follow the speculation over who becomes Vice Chairman for regulatory supervision. The early favorite for this post is Sarah Bloom Raskin, who’s favored by progressives. Raskin was Deputy Treasury Secretary in the Obama administration, and is the wife of Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin (D), who led the second Trump impeachment trial.
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HAPPY THANKSGIVING: Sincere thanks to all of you in the U.S., Canada and elsewhere for for your kind words and encouragement; we have much to be thankful for. We’re off tomorrow and Friday, back next Monday morning.
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