Donald Trump’s Legal Problems Just Got Worse

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

IT’S A SURE BET that Donald Trump will rip into liberal New York prosecutors today for conducting a “witch hunt” against him. His supporters will agree, but in private a growing number of Republican leaders in Washington are bracing for months — or years — of criminal probes that will distract voters from the GOP agenda.

LAST NIGHT’S ANNOUNCEMENT by the New York Attorney General’s office that she’s investigating potential criminal charges, not just civil cases, was significant because the AG will now be cooperating with the NYC district attorney, who has been focusing on criminal activity.

SEVERAL HIGH-PROFILE WITNESSES have talked with prosecutors, including Trump’s son Eric, his former attorney Michael Cohen, and the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, Alan Weisselberg. Potential charges include payments to women Trump allegedly had affairs with, and the inflating of his assets to secure loans, while under-stating those assets for tax purposes.

IT’S PROBABLE THAT CHARGES WILL BE BROUGHT but Trump is a master of dragging out court proceedings while demonizing prosecutors as biased against him. These New York cases could take years to resolve.

SO WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE REPUBLICANS IN WASHINGTON? About a third of them are passionate Trump supporters, eager to please their constituents. But the other two-thirds will tell you — in private — that Trump is more trouble than he’s worth, a huge distraction from the GOP agenda. The leader of this camp is the Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell.

McCONNELL’S NIGHTMARE is that the Republicans’ prospects in the 2022 elections — good in the House, fair in the Senate — will be obscured by Trump’s legal problems (which may eventually include charges of election tampering in Georgia and inciting a riot in Washington D.C.).

TRUMP WILL CONTINUE TO DEMAND BLIND LOYALTY from Republicans, but McConnell has other ideas. He sees an agenda taking shape — opposition to President Biden on immigration, tax hikes, spending, Israel, inflation, social issues, etc. Unlike Liz Cheney, McConnell won’t hammer away at Trump in public, but in private he wants Trump go away.

BUT TRUMP WON’T GO AWAY: Intoxicated by his passionate base, convinced that he won the election last November, Trump wants another term as president, even though he can read the polls — there aren’t enough centrist voters to elect him in a general election. Yet he is willing to rip the party to shreds in an effort to win another nomination.

COULD SOMEONE UNDER INDICTMENT, potentially facing jail time, win the GOP nomination in 2024? After the last few years, nothing would surprise us — but our sense is that while a Republican could win the presidency in 2024, it most likely would not be Donald J. Trump. That’s why party leaders are taking such a careful look at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who could sweep the Sunbelt, from the Carolinas to Arizona.

 

 


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
Total
0
Shares
Previous Article

Tech Talk for Wednesday May 19th 2021

Next Article

CVS Health Corp. - (CVS) - May 19, 2021

Related Posts
Subscribe to AdvisorAnalyst.com notifications
Watch. Listen. Read. Raise your average.