by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
January 29, 2021
THE JAN. 6 RANSACKING OF THE CAPITOL has led to a conclusion by most Republicans that Donald Trump has been unfairly targeted.
TRUMP’S SUPPORT within the party is rock-solid, at 80%, and in state after state, his GOP critics have relented. He won 74 million votes in the election, after all, and the vast majority of those voters believe the election was rigged.
THIS REMARKABLE SUPPORT was on display yesterday as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, seeking forgiveness, met with Trump in Mar-a-Lago. McCarthy can read the polls — there’s a huge backlash in Kentucky against Mitch McConnell, who said Trump bore responsibility for the riot.
SO A PURGE IS LIKELY, starting with the apostate Liz Cheney, who faces a brutal GOP primary next year and is unlikely to survive. Never mind that she’s one of the most conservative members of Congress — she had the temerity to suggest that Trump’s rhetoric inspired the rioters. Nine other House Republicans agreed, and most will lose their primaries.
IN OUR LONG CAREER OF COVERING WASHINGTON, we have never seen such a toxic environment, as the threat of violence hangs over Capitol Hill. Respected conservatives like Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio are leaving as Republicans scramble to meet the Trump litmus test.
DEMOCRATS WILL FAIL in their attempt to expel QAnon supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene, the new GOP House member from Georgia, who once advocated the execution of Nancy Pelosi. She has claimed that the Parkland School shootings were fake, yet Republicans gave her a seat on House Education and Labor Committee. Before he lost his Twitter account, Trump called Greene “a real WINNER!”
AND DEMOCRATS WILL FAIL in their attempt to convict Trump in an impeachment trial. They’re determined to show evidence from the Jan. 6 riot, but they have no chance of prevailing. Even a simple censure of Trump will be difficult; Republicans don’t want to incur his wrath.
REPUBLICANS COULD RE-CAPTURE CONGRESS in 2022 — history shows that a new president usually has a rocky first mid-term election — but some notable GOP Senators are retiring, and there’s a potentially fatal flaw in the party’s logic.
THE TRUMP LOYALISTS CAN CONTROL nominations next year, booting out any dissidents, but can they win general elections? That’s the key, and the party may struggle — again — in the suburbs and among moderates.
IN THE MEANTIME, the idea of unity in Washington has completely dissipated. After the failed impeachment trial, both parties will dig in on a Covid relief bill. It’s likely that no Republican will vote for the $1.9 trillion Biden package, which means he will either have to whittle it down or attempt to prevail via budget reconciliation, which will require every Democrat to vote for it.
BIDEN STILL WANTS A BIPARTISAN BILL, but with many Republicans insisting on the right to carry firearms on the House floor, bipartisanship and unity have no chance.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
