by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
November 18, 2020
AS LAWMAKERS FLEE CAPITOL HILL, a Covid-19 hot spot, speculation has already begun over the future of both parties. Democrats agree, in private, that a major rift has already begun between Progressives and moderates. Republicans agree, in private, that President Trump is the early favorite for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination.
THE ELECTION earlier this month sent a stinging rebuke to the Democrats’
left wing; voters don’t want to defund the police or embrace massive new spending programs. Nancy Pelosi expected to win at least 10 House seats, but she lost that many. Not one GOP incumbent lost a House race.
NEVERTHELESS, THE PROGRESSIVES will push back, hard. They claim that mainstream Democrats were too timid in the election, and the Progressives already have issues with initial Biden staff nominees, who are mostly white men; two of his picks have been lobbyists, apparently a fatal flaw for Progressives.
WE THOUGHT THE DEMOCRATS’ FISSURES would become apparent by late winter — but silly us, the fissures are apparent already. Fierce battles are underway over Biden’s Cabinet picks, which may favor pragmatists over ideologues. (Lael Brainard is far more likely to become Treasury Secretary than Elizabeth Warren.)
THE POSSIBILITIY OF DIVIDED DEMOCRATS, unable to get much done because of Republican gains in both houses, gives the GOP a chance to bounce back in 2022 House races — and the likelihood that Biden will be a one-term president makes the 2024 Republican nomination very much worth winning.
TRUMP HAS TOLD ASSOCIATES that he plans to run again. Perhaps that’s delusional — he faces numerous legal challenges in the Southern District of New York, and he reportedly has a $400 million debt to settle. But this doesn’t matter to his loyal base, which overwhelmingly believes his baseless claim that the Nov. 3 election was rigged.
TRUMP WILL BE 78 four years from now; Biden turns 78 on Friday. Trump doesn’t appear to be in great shape, but he showed tremendous energy in the final weeks of this fall’s campaign.
AT THE LEAST, TRUMP WILL DOMINATE the Republican Party for the foreseeable future, tweeting dozens of times a day, campaigning for GOP Senate and House candidates — and he will continue to argue that the election was stolen. It’s unlikely that he will ever concede.
A POTENTIAL TRUMP RUN in 2024 would freeze most Republican challengers; would Mike Pence or Nikki Haley or Tom Cotton announce that they’re thinking about running? That would enrage Trump’s supporters, who would view any other candidates as disloyal to Trump. It’s worth noting that he won over 70 million votes on Nov. 3.
WE THINK A SECOND TRUMP TERM is unlikely, but he nearly won this election in the midst of a pandemic. After still another key firing last night, it’s apparent that Trump wants revenge against his perceived enemies. His ego requires another term — and he will not discourage speculation that he plans to run again.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
