by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: 8
October 21, 2020
CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS CONSIDER DONALD TRUMP an albatross; for years they would not acknowledge this in public, but now they’re bailing out. Mitch McConnell is leading the retreat.
A McCONNELL-TRUMP FEUD IS NOW PUBLIC, as the Senate Majority Leader bluntly declared yesterday that a pandemic relief bill shouldn’t pass before the election; most of his troops want nothing to do with a measure that could cost over $2 trillion.
McCONNELL HAS TWO OBJECTIVES: First, to get Amy Coney Barrett confirmed, probably on Monday. He wants no distractions, such as the pandemic bill, to get in the way. Her confirmation will cement McConnell’s legacy as the dominant force in moving the U.S. judiciary far to the right for the next two decades.
SECOND, McCONNELL STILL THINKS THERE’S A CHANCE that Republicans could retain control of the Senate on Nov. 3 — but that’s a tough task when even GOP Senate seats in Kansas and Iowa appear to be in jeopardy. The only way to keep the Senate, he believes, is to bail out on Trump.
THE PRESIDENT NEEDS A MASSIVE STIMULUS BILL, which would please the stock market and instantly boost prospects for a decent economy this winter. But McConnell doesn’t need a massive stimulus bill — and the irony is that congressional Republicans no longer have loyalty to this erratic president, and they will kill any deal.
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MONEY, IT’S A GAS: Pink Floyd got it right, and what a surprise it is to see Republicans badly trailing in fundraising — and running out of money to fund TV ads in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. The GOP is bogged down in a money trap in Florida, where a huge influx of cash from Michael Bloomberg is making the Sunshine State competitive.
AN ARTICLE IN THIS MORNING’S POLITICO details the Republicans’ funding woes, which have allowed the cash-rich Democrats to saturate TV. Joe Biden ads are running more frequently by 2-to-1 in most of the country.
THIS GOT US THINKING ABOUT GOOGLE AND THE TECH SECTOR, which contributes lavishly to candidates, mostly Democrats. There are several excellent articles this morning about Google’s dominance and possible antitrust remedies, but what strikes us is that Silicon Valley is a cash cow for Democrats.
AS THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT takes years and years to resolve this complex case, the campaign contributions will continue. Should Biden win, Kamala Harris obviously would be a major player, and it’s worth noting that she has close ties to the major players in Silicon Valley, many of whom have contributed to her campaigns.
WE ALWAYS SAY THAT MONEY is the mother’s milk of politics — an adage coined by a legendary California politician, Jesse Unruh. The Democrats and Bloomberg get it, and the Republicans may pay a price.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.