by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
THE GREATEST PRESIDENTIAL HEALTH CRISIS since Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981 has scrambled everything from the campaign to the financial markets. Some very early observations:
1. Donald Trump has the best health care in the world, and odds favor him surviving this, despite his age and obesity.
2. Since masks were mocked and rarely used in Trumpās inner circle, itās likely that
more cases will surface.
3. There will be an inevitable focus on the line of succession ā first, obviously,
is VP Mike Pence; next comes Nancy Pelosi.
4. While we expect Trump to recover, the presidential campaign will be altered. Will Joe Biden suspend his activities?
5. Trump desperately wanted to change the subject away from the pandemic; his Supreme Court pick could have done that. Now Trumpās handling of the virus will dominate the campaign.
6. The virus is still very much alive, without an imminent vaccine, and this will
renew the debate about re-opening everything from schools to restaurants.
7. This crisis could renew efforts to pass a pandemic relief bill; the economy is at
risk of flattening if there isnāt legislation.
8. For the financial markets, which hate uncertainty, fixed income looks like a
safe haven for now.
9. Could the election be postponed? Still very unlikely. The upcoming presidential
debates on Oct. 15 and 22 could be postponed.
10. Does this change the election outlook? If Trump survives with grace, as Reagan did in 1981, it could help him. But we still think Biden will win narrowly.
BOTTOM LINE: As we write this, before 6 a.m., much is unclear. We suspect that
this crisis will persist for many days as the pandemic infects Washington. The
dominant issue, by far: is the President symptomatic?
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
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Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGFās suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
