Our wide-ranging conversations with Brian Wesbury, Chief Market Economist, at First Trust Portfolios, where we discuss the state of the U.S. economy, the consequences of the COVID-19 lockdown, what empirical data says about the true state of affairs. Recently, Wesbury has been quoted as saying “The recession is over,” and we discuss what he meant by that.
Show notes:
• What is your background?
• What are some of your most remarkable findings during this pandemic period?
• There’s never been a full-on shutdown of the economy.
• “The recession is over.” What did you mean when you said it?
• What weekly and monthly high frequency data are revealing
• “The virus has a virus.”
• We have borrowed against our children and grandkids to do this – one day we’ll look back on this and realize…
• Quantitative Easing and the COVID rescue are happening concurrently (in case you haven’t given it much thought since the lockdown)
• The COVID related economic rescue is likely to be inflationary
• How can the economy be so bad, and stocks so good?
• This year’s earnings won’t be as bad as originally forecast at the beginning of the lockdown.
• The true consequences of the lockdown are not yet known.
• Continue to be bullish on broad equities and commodities – gold is expensive relative to historical norms versus other commodities, e.g. gold/oil ratio. 45x vs. 16x gold per barrel.
• The worst thing that could happen this year?
• We are resilient. We will get through this.
• There’s a lot of skepticism and confusion surrounding the need for the lockdown
• Collection of Data about COVID-19 cases and deaths are not uniform and subject to a lot of error.
• What have you been reading in your spare time?
