by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
FIRST, LET’S GET THIS OUT OF THE WAY: There will be an election on Nov. 3; only Congress has the authority to delay it. Unless there’s a landslide, the results may be disputed — and mail-in vote-counting could take at least a week.
THEREIN LIES DONALD TRUMP’S ASSERTION that the election will be fraudulent — “rigged,” as he repeatedly claims. His base may believe unsupported claims about mail-in voting, so at the least a Joe Biden presidency could be undermined, Trump apparently believes.
BUT A REMARKABLE THING HAPPENED YESTERDAY: Virtually every Republican of note recoiled at Trump’s suggestion that the election could be postponed. He might have thought there would be support for his idea, but there was none. His GOP allies were aghast.
PERHAPS TRUMP WAS TRYING TO DEFLECT attention away from yesterday’s woeful economic data (unemployment claims, now rising, were particularly troubling). Or perhaps he was trying to deflect attention away from his inability to get a stimulus bill passed. Or perhaps he wanted to deflect attention away from the funeral of civil rights icon John Lewis.
IN ANY EVENT, THIS MOVE BACKFIRED SO SPECTACULARLY that people we talked with last night were speculating — once again — about whether Trump could throw in the towel.
NOT EVERY POLL IS WRONG: They overwhelmingly show Trump not just losing the election, but barely ahead in states like Texas. He hates to lose, so Trump has to be worrying about a humiliating defeat. The economy, which he was counting on, hardly looks like the “rocket ship” that he has been promising. And while new cases of Covid-19 may be leveling off in parts of the Sunbelt, fatalities continue to surge.
COULD TRUMP CONSIDER DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE just before the Aug. 24-27 Republican convention? Could he claim that the deck is stacked against him — a conspiracy that would preclude his re-election? This stunning option cannot be ruled out.
IF THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO SLUMP, with Trump unable to get a desperately needed stimulus bill through Congress, with polls still showing him far behind, we think there’s a 25% chance he will bow out in a blaze of recriminations and self-pity.
AT THIS POINT
Mike Pence would have a better chance than Trump in the general election, many Republicans are saying in private. Trump’s base and evangelical Christains would gladly vote for Pence — who might give the GOP an outside chance of keeping the Senate, which almost surely will fall if Trump heads the ticket.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI is registered as a portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
