by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author: Greg Valliere
June 23, 2020
LEFTWARD VEER TONIGHT? Three important primaries today have the potential to shift the 2020 presidential narrative — are the Democrats (and Joe Biden) veering leftward? It’s clear that President Trump wants to portray the Democrats as far-left radicals, so tonight’s results will be important.
THREE INSURGENTS ON THE LEFT, all African-Americans, have a chance of winning primaries:
In New York City, 16-term Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel, 73, appears to be trailing a leftist challenger, education activist Jamaal Bowman. This is a heavyweight race, with party veterans like Hillary Clinton and James Clyburn endorsing Engel, while self-proclaimed,socialists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders are endorsing Bowman.
In a district north of NYC, progressive Mondaire Jones apparently is well ahead in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nita Lowey.
In Kentucky, moderate former Marine pilot Amy McGrath is the slight favorite against state Rep. Charles Booker in a primary to decide who will run against Mitch McConnell. McGrath has been considered the clear favorite but this race has tightened.
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT: If Engel is ousted, it would be seen as a victory for Ocasio-Cortez, who won a similar primary upset two years ago. And it would send a message to Biden that he has to keep his promise to support the progressive agenda.
FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP, staggering through a miserable June, a breakthrough tonight for the leftists would be a most welcome gift. Biden is a moderate by Democrats’ standards, but Trump will attempt to tie him to the party’s left wing agenda. Tonight could give Trump an opening.
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PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS MORE STIMULUS: There’s been a lot of noise lately that Congress might balk on another stimulus bill; GOP deficit hawks are getting cold feet, some analysts assert. But Trump made it clear yesterday that he wants more stimulus.
IN AN INTERVIEW with Scripps local news, Trump was asked if there would be another bill. “We will be doing another stimulus package,” Trump said, “It will be very good. It will be very generous.” He added that he wants another round of checks to individuals.
AS WE WROTE YESTERDAY, it could take several weeks to iron out details on what will be in the next bill; a measure may not pass until just before the August recess. But with Trump, Jerome Powell, Steve Mnuchin and most Democrats on board with another bill, the GOP deficit hawks are unlikely to block it.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
