by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
ANOTHER ELECTION CONTROVERSY: We’re still in May, but there’s a growing likelihood that the Nov. 3 presidential election results will be disputed. The coronavirus will prompt many states to adopt mail-in voting, which President Trump adamantly asserts is fraudulent.
TRUMP IS PREPARED TO CHALLENGE the election if it’s close — and it seems very likely that it will be close. In Pennsylvania, for example, officials say it could take several days to validate a razor-thin margin, and in other states Trump is likely to claim fraud. Yesterday he predicted a “rigged” election.
WE’RE FREQUENTLY ASKED whether the election could be postponed, especially if the pandemic is still present. The House controls election logistics, and is not inclined to postpone the election. A disputed result is more likely, perhaps even adjudicated by the conservative Supreme Court, which decided the 2000 election.
THE HEART OF THIS CONTROVERSY involves Trump’s increasingly strident — and baseless — claim that mail-in voting is fraudulent. There’s no evidence to support that assertion; the most recent mail-in election was a special House race in California earlier this month that went smoothly — and the Republican won.
NEVERTHELESS, TRUMP STATED LAST WEEK THAT “We don’t want anyone to do absentee ballots,” — even though Trump has voted by mail at least three times, including the Florida primary earlier this year.
TRUMP HAS THREATENED STATES with a cut-off of federal aid if they proceed with plans for mail-in voting, although it’s unclear whether he has the authority to do so. In any event, this has not dissuaded the states from mailing applications to voters. Trump has attacked Nevada’s aggressive move to proactively make mail-in voting available to all residents. Nevada’s Secretary of State, who is implementing the program, is a Republican.
DEMOCRATS ARGUE THAT TRUMP is determined to suppress turnout; they assert that the GOP wants to block anything that would make voting easier. Democrats also claim that in several states, mostly in the South, voter turnout has been suppressed.
ELECTION EXPERTS ARE PREDICTING that nearly 170 million voters may be eligible to vote by mail this fall, which should produce far more than the 33 million absentee ballots that actually were cast in 2016. Anything close to 100 million mail-in votes could delay reporting final results in cash-strapped states, which may not have resources to report quickly.
FINALLY, STILL ANOTHER CONTROVERSY: The U.S. Postal Service, which would obviously be integral in this process, is warning that it could run out of money this fall and shut down. This would require the passage of funding legislation that Trump has threatened to veto.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
