by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
Insights and Market Perspectives
Author:Â Greg Valliere
April 15, 2020
ITâS INCREASINGLY CLEAR that a gradual, phased return to a new normal is coming next month in lightly affected regions of the U.S. A leak in this morningâs Washington Post confirms that federal guidance will be released within days.
GOVERNORS WILL CALL THE SHOTS, of course, but President Trump will be a major part of the show â with his signature on $1,200 government aid checks â amid his call for workers to return to their jobs. But weâre not returning to the old normal.
EVEN TRUMP WILL HAVE TO BOW to urging from scientists to maintain social distancing for months to come, which will be a game-changer for the lucrative sports industry. Wearing masks and using Purell will be a given, but can you envision
a sold-out crowd at Yankee Stadium in June? We canât; itâs too risky.
THE TIPOFF WILL COME FROM SOCCER-MAD EUROPE, still traumatized by thousands of deaths. We think itâs unlikely that Real Madrid or Manchester United will have huge crowds this summer â or any crowds.
PERHAPS IT HASNâT SUNK IN that enormous changes will stay in place until a vaccine is readily available, at least a year away. Americans are impatient â that certainly applies to us â and we will eagerly go to restaurants later this spring, where social distancing is possible.
BUT ITâS NOT GOING TO BE POSSIBLE AT FOOTBALL games this fall, where 80,000 people simply cannot be jammed into an Alabama-Auburn game without inevitable infections.
THE GREAT RISK, OF COURSE, IS A SECOND WAVE of this horrible disease. It could come if people return too quickly to work in May, or it could come this fall as schools re-open and football returns. The virus is unforgiving: South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem scoffed at mandatory restrictions, and now her state is a hot zone.
SORRY TO BE A BUZZ-KILL this morning, because the numbers are looking better â infections are falling, the public is generally cooperating, and the economy will respond to massive monetary and fiscal stimulus.
BUT DR. FAUCI AND THE SCIENTISTS will make it clear that thousands of people cannot be packed together â sweating and sneezing in the bleachers at Fenway Park â until weâre out of the woods on new infections. And we wonât be out of the woods in May, or June, or perhaps much longer.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
