by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
WHAT A SCENARIO: Facing a sudden surge by Bernie Sanders, Democrats running for president have taken off the gloves, forming a circular firing squad that could benefit Mike Bloomberg, who will spend one billion dollars or more to win the nomination.
YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS UP: On Feb. 3 people will vote in living rooms around Iowa after listening to pitches for the candidates. The upcoming three weeks ahead of this voting will be complicated by Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, Joe Biden’s 2002 vote for the Iraq war, and Bloomberg’s strategy for Super Tuesday on March 3. And let’s throw the wildly popular TV superstar Judge Judy into this mix.
Here, quickly, are five key points:
1. Sanders is surging, now ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire. This terrifies the party’s establishment, which has concluded that Sanders has no chance of winning the general election. So Sanders’ enormously expensive socialist agenda — Medicare for all, the Green New Deal, etc. — will be targeted in tomorrow’s debate.
2. Pete Buttigieg has stalled, Elizabeth Warren has been labeled an elitist by the Sanders forces, and Joe Biden has taken heavy fire for his vote to authorize the Iraq war in 2002, for which he apologized years ago. Biden’s track record has been vilified by the left, as was Hillary Clinton’s — and this may doom him in the early primaries; Biden could finish fourth in Iowa.
3. If there’s no clear favorite after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, Bloomberg could be perfectly positioned for the March 3 Super Tuesday races. He’s already spending lavishly in the key states, such as Texas, where he has a campaign infrastructure in place to accompany his saturation advertising. Tom Steyer is playing with chump change compared to Bloomberg.
4. There’s a TV personality that few of us watch — Judge Judy Sheindlin, who attracts 10 million viewers per episode of her reality court show. She is paid about $47 million a year, and has an enormous following, just beneath the radar. The no-nonsense judge has endorsed Bloomberg and campaigned with him in Texas this past weekend.
5. Just to make this scenario even more bizarre, the impeachment trial will begin within days, forcing Senators like Sanders and Warren back to Washington just ahead of the primaries. Will there be witnesses, such as John Bolton? High
drama ahead, just as the Democrats try to make closing arguments in Iowa and New Hampshire.
BOTTOM LINE: Sanders is the front-runner, for now. Biden needs a spectacular showing tomorrow night. Bloomberg is determined to buy the nomination, and he just might succeed, despite his lack of charisma. Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang and the rest haven’t gained enough traction. Once the dust settles, by late spring, the party may be bitterly divided, with at least one major faction inclined to stay at home in November.
THE BENFICIARY of this dizzying scenario is obvious, as unemployment settles in at 3.5% and the government in Iran suddenly looks vulnerable . . .
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This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
