by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.
GO FIGURE: He’s 78, had a heart attack recently, sounds angry most of the time and is a self-proclaimed Socialist. Yet Bernie Sanders may be peaking at just the right time in Iowa, as Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg level off.
WITH $33 MILLION IN CASH on hand, as more small contributors pitch in, money isn’t a problem. Sanders consistently draws large and enthusiastic crowds, as he blasts corporate greed and income inequality in fiery speeches that have won him the most loyal base in the party.
WE STILL THINK JOE BIDEN AND PERHAPS MIKE BLOOMBERG are more likely to win the nomination, but Sanders has a plausible path. He could win Iowa (where his numbers have improved) and New Hampshire (he won the primary there in 2016, capturing 60% of the vote). He has a chance to win the next primary, in Nevada, on Feb 22, and if he runs respectably against Biden in the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary, Sanders could head into Super Tuesday on March 3 with some momentum.
THIS HAS THE PARTY’S ESTABLISHMENT WORRIED: Sanders has never been popular among the Democrats’ leadership; he has refused to declare himself a Democrat, and his proposals — confiscatory taxation, huge new government programs, etc. — would make him the underdog to Donald Trump in the general election, according to establishment Democrats. Barack Obama has bluntly proclaimed that he would speak out forcefully if Sanders appeared to have a chance of winning the nomination.
BUT THERE’S AN “X” FACTOR with Sanders — he could go on offense against Trump in the debates, not backing down an inch. Debates aren’t Biden’s strong suit, as we’ll probably see again tomorrow night.
WE TALKED WITH A REPORTER FRIEND yesterday who has been in Iowa for the past couple of weeks. He thinks the ground is shifting a bit — Warren is leveling off but is still in the running; Buttigieg has raised transparency issues over fundraising; Biden has won admiration for his hard work at rallies day after day; Amy Klobuchar is rising a little; Andrew Yang has won points with young voters; and then there’s Bernie — not going away, an authentic and consistent provocateur with amazing energy.
TRUMP REPORTEDLY WOULD LOVE TO RUN AGAINST SANDERS, but our sense is that calling him “Crazy Bernie” would have no impact. It’s the issues that are intriguing — both Trump and Sanders are unabashedly populists on issues like trade, but voters in both parties support Sanders’ call for higher taxes on the wealthy. Young people have veered sharply leftward, and Democrats in general want red meat; they’re passionately opposed to Trump. Bernie brings the red meat.
COULD SANDERS WIN THE NOMINATION? Unlikely, but it’s not out of the question, especially if he consolidates the left by driving Warren out of the race by spring. Could he win the presidency? Also unlikely — but no one gave Trump much of a chance in 2016; he was viewed as a loud New Yorker with radical ideas and hard-core supporters. Just like Bernie Sanders.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2019 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.
