Blaine Rollins: Still a bit hazy...

Multiple factors have helped drive the rebound in Chinese stocks this year. Optimism increased about the U.S.-China trade situation, while the People’s Bank of China moved to cushion the country’s economy and Beijing’s new chief securities regulator made a call to “revere the market.” And then there was the widely-anticipated announcement last week that MSCI Inc. would boost the weighting of mainland-listed shares in its indexes.

(Bloomberg)

…while the Fed probably doesn’t have enough firepower to offset a deep recession, the big sag that we expect is probably manageable. More specifically, the Fed now has 250bps of easing (which will be more impactful than typical because of the longer durations of assets this cycle), plus the ability to turn QE back on, which we estimate is roughly equivalent to the 4% to 5% of easing typically required to get out of recessions.

(RayDalio/Bridgewater)

It’s been a cruel winter for auto sales, as slowing deliveries of even once-hot sport utility vehicles signal the rapid onset of a widely expected downturn in U.S. new-car demand.

Even Jeep, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s star SUV brand, suffered a second consecutive monthly decline, driving the carmaker to its first total sales retreat in a year. At Ford Motor Co., sales fell 4.4 percent, worse than analysts projected, due in part to a drop-off in sales of its top seller, the F-Series, according to a person familiar with the results.

Those companies joined Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. in trailing analysts’ estimates for February in a Bloomberg News survey. The annualized industry sales rate slowed to 16.6 million, the worst reading in 18 months, according to researcher Autodata Corp., also missing expectations.

(Bloomberg)

Shoppers, especially younger ones, learn about products online from friends, bloggers, YouTube celebrities, and so on. The shift to online shopping has opened infinite shelf space for niche products. Barriers to entry for food upstarts are low.“

Reviews on Amazon.com and other online stores level the playing field,” says Kelly Flynn, a portfolio manager at Winslow Capital Management. “Companies no longer have to invest in brands over decades. You can read online reviews and see thousands of people who gave a product five stars.”

Customer tastes have splintered. Some want gluten-free. Others, low-carb for so-called keto diets. Many want simpler ingredient lists and virtuous treatment of workers and animals. Those who can afford it look for artisan foods, not megabrands.

According to Credit Suisse analyst Robert Moskow, an early bear on packaged food in general and Kraft Heinz in particular, the combined market share of the top 20 packaged-food companies fell to 42.4% last year from 46.8% in 2011. Much of the lost share has gone to niche and entrepreneurial brands. Moskow recently calculated that among the 20 best selling foods and beverages on Amazon.com, more than 70% were created by start-ups. These include a brand of coconut oil called Viva Naturals, which is riding the keto craze, and a snack called RXBar, whose maker was bought by Kellogg in 2017.

(Barrons)

But in late 2014, farm milk prices started to plummet. The downturn, fueled by overproduction and failing export markets, has lasted more than four years and has wiped out dairy farms from Maine to California.The price farmers receive for their milk has fallen nearly 40 percent.

“This downward cycle has been brutal,” said Kevin Schoessow, a University of Wisconsin-Extension agent in Washburn County.

Wisconsin lost almost 700 dairy farms in 2018, an unprecedented rate of nearly two a day. Most were small operations unable to survive farm milk prices that, adjusted for inflation, were among the lowest in a half-century.

As of Feb. 1, Wisconsin had 8,046 dairy herds, down 40 percent from 10 years earlier, according to state Department of Agriculture data.

(MilwaukeeJournalSentinel)

A Texas man is planning to spend his retirement years at Holiday Inns nationwide instead of moving into a nursing home, in an effort to cut costs, ABC affiliate WSET reported.Terry Robinson of Spring, Texas, listed his reasons for spending his golden years as a customer of the hotel chain in a viral post on Facebook earlier this month.

While the average cost of a nursing home can amount to $188.00 per day, Robinson wrote in the post that reservations at the Holiday Inn cost $59.23 per night with a “combined long term stay discount and senior discount.”

“Breakfast is included and some have happy hours in the afternoon,” Robinson wrote. “That leaves $128.77 a day for lunch and dinner in any restaurant we want, or room service, laundry, gratuities and special TV movies. Plus, they provide a spa, swimming pool, a workout room, a lounge and washer-dryer, etc.”

“Most have free toothpaste and razors, and all have free shampoo and soap,” he went on to write, adding that “$5 worth of tips a day and you’ll have the entire staff scrambling to help you.”

“They treat you like a customer, not a patient,” he said.

(TheHill)