Vialoux's Tech Talk: June 23, 2014

Economic News This Week

May Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT
on Monday are expected to increase to 4.80 million units from
4.65 million units in April.

April Case/ Shiller 20 City Home Price Index to be
released at 9:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip on a
year-over-year basis to 11.6% from 11.4% in March.

May New Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on
Tuesday are expected to increase to 440,000 units from 433,000
units in April.

June Consumer Confidence Index to be released at 10:00
AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to 84.0 from 83.0 in
May.

May Durable Goods Orders to be released at 8:30 AM EDT
on Wednesday are expected to slip to 0.4% from 0.6% in April.
Excluding Transportation May Orders are expected to
increase to 0.4% from 0.3% in April.

Third estimate of first quarter GDP to be released at
8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to drop to -1.8% from the
second estimate of -1.0%.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM
EDT on Thursday are expected to dip to 310,000 from 312,000
last week.

May Personal Income to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on
Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in
April. May Personal Spending is expected to increase
0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% in April.

June Michigan Sentiment Index to be released at 9:55 AM
EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 81.7 from 81.2 in May.

Earnings News This Week

Equity Trends

The S&P 500 Index gained 26.71 points (1.38%) last
week. Trend remains up. The Index closed at an all-time
high. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short
term momentum indicators have returned to overbought levels.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day
moving average recovered to 88.40% from 78.80% last week.
Percent has returned to an intermediate overbought level.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day
moving average increased last week to 87.80% from 86.60%.
Percent recovered to an intermediate overbought level.

Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last
week to 83.80% from 82.40% and remained above its 15 day
moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks recovered
last week to 83.67% from 82.45% and remained above its 15
day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

The TSX Composite Index gained 107.36 points (0.72%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 1.0). The Index
touched at an all-time high. The Index remains above its 20 day
moving average (Score: 1.0). Strength relative to the S&P
500 Index remains positive (Score: 1.0). Technical score based
on the above indicators remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term
momentum indicators remain trending up, but are overbought.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving
average increased last week to 68.31% from 65.98%. Percent
remains intermediate overbought.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving
average dipped last week to 75.13% from 75.41%. Percent
remains intermediate overbought.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 171.34 points
(1.02%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The
Average closed at an all-time high. The Average remains above
its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500
Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 2.0 out of
3.0. Short term momentum indicators recovered to overbought
levels.

Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average
stocks was unchanged last week at 86.67% and remained above
its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate
overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased
last week to 59.86% from 56.82% and remained above its 15
day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 57.39 points (1.33%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at
3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators remain
overbought.

The Russell 2000 Index gained 19.37 points (1.67%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index remains
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at
2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators returned to
overbought.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 162.26 points
(2.02%) last week. The Average moved above its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from negative to neutral. Technical score increased to
2.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have
returned to overbought levels.

The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added $17.90
points (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains
neutral. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Technical score remains at 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum
indicators are trending down.

The Nikkei Average gained 251.58 points (1.67%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at
3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators have returned to
overbought levels.

Europe 350 iShares gained $0.41 (0.82%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains negative. Technical score remains at 2.0 out of 3.0.
Short term momentum indicators have recovered to overbought
levels.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 44.04 points (2.13%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index fell below
its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500
Index changed from neutral to negative. Technical score fell to
1.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending down.

iShares Emerging Markets slipped $0.05 (0.11%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above
their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P
500 Index changed from neutral to negative. Technical score
slipped to 2.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum
indicators are overbought and trending down.

Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters
for Equity Indices/ETFs

Key:

Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative
basis applying EquityClock.com charts

Trend: Up, Down or Neutral

Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive,
Negative or Neutral

Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and
MACD: Up, Down or Mixed

Twenty Day Moving Average: Above, Below

Green: Upgrade

Red: Downgrade

Editor’s Note: All of the upgrade changes in Momentum
resulted from an improvement in indicators from trending down
to recovering to overbought levels.

Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.21 (0.26%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Dollar fell below its
20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are
trending down.

The Euro added 0.56 (0.41%) last week. Intermediate
trend remains neutral. The Euro moved above its 20 day moving
average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

The Canadian Dollar added US 0.87 cents (0.94%) last
week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on Friday on a
move above US 92.49 cents. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20
day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending
up, but are overbought.

The Japanese Yen slipped 0.07 (0.07%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen remains above its 20
day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.

Commodities

The CRB Index added 4.31 points (1.40%) last week.
Intermediate trend changed on Friday from down to up on a move
above 312.68. The Index remains above its 20 day moving
average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains
neutral. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.5 out of 3.0.

Gasoline added $0.04 per gallon (1.31%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Gas remains above its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains positive. Technical score remained at 3.0 out of 3.0.

Crude Oil slipped $0.08 per barrel (0.07%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Crude remains above its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from positive to neutral. Technical score changed to
2.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending up, but are overbought.

Natural Gas fell $0.21 per MBtu (4.44%) last week.
Intermediate trend changed to positive to neutral on a move
above $4.852. Gas fell below its 20 day moving average.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from
positive to neutral. Technical score slipped to 1.5 from 2.5
out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

The S&P Energy Index gained 19.33 points (2.70%) last
week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at
3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up,
but are overbought.

The Philadelphia Oil Services Index added 7.98 points
(2.67%) last week. Trend changed from neutral to up on a
move above 303.47. The Index remains above its 20 day moving
average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains
positive. Technical score increased to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0.
Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are
overbought.

Gold gained $42.50 per ounce (3.34%) last week.
Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a move above
$1,315.80. Gold remained above its 20 day moving average.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral
to positive. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.5 out of
3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are
overbought.

Silver gained $1.30 per ounce (6.62%) last week.
Intermediate trend changed from down to up on a move above
$20.00. Silver remains above its 20 day moving average.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term
momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
Strength relative to Gold remains positive.

The AMEX Gold Bug Index gained 14.52 points (6.55%) last
week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up on moves
above 229.91 and 236.20. The Index remains above its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains positive. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.0 out
of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are
overbought. Strength relative to Gold remains positive.

Platinum added $22.30 per ounce (1.55%) last week. Trend
remains up. Platinum moved above its 20 day moving average.
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Technical score improved to 2.0 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Strength
relative to Gold remains negative.

Palladium added $9.60 per ounce (1.18%) last week. Trend
remains up. PALL remains below its 20 day MA. Strength relative
to S&P 500 and Gold remains negative.

Copper added $0.09 per lb (2.97%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Copper moved above its 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
changed from negative to neutral. Technical score improved to
2.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are
trending up.

The TSX Metals & Mining Index added 17.04 points (2.05%)
last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains
below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the
S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at
1.0 to 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

Lumber jumped $20.90 (6.79%) last week. Trend remains
down. Lumber moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength
relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from negative to
positive.

The Grain ETN added $0.30 (0.66%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain below their 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains negative. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0.

The Agriculture ETF improved $0.91 (1.67%) last week.
Intermediate trend remains up. Units moved above their 20 day
moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index
remains negative. Technical score improved to 2.0 from 1.0 out
of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

Interest Rates

The yield on 10 year Treasuries increased 2.0 basis points
(0.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield
remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum
indicators are mixed.

Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF slipped
$0.35 (0.31%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up.
Units remain below their 20 day moving average.

Other Issues

The VIX Index fell 1.33 (10.92%) last week. Trend
remains down. The Index fell below its 20 day moving average.

Clearly, normal seasonal influences on North American equity
markets in the month of June are not working this year.
June historically has been the second weakest month in the year
(surpassed only by weakness in September) and the weakest part
of June has been the last two weeks.

Economic focus this week is on the U.S.housing industry.
Consensus show modest gains on a month-over-month basis.

Earnings reports are sparse this week. Focus is on
Monsanto and Nike. Also, be prepared for earnings confessions
prior to release of second quarter results. Companies that
offered negative confessions last week saw their shares
punished significantly. Second quarter consensus earnings per
share estimates show an average (median) year-over-year gain by
Dow Jones Industrial Aveage companies of 3.4%. Consensus for
TSX 60 companies is a year-over-year gain of 6.8%.

Short and intermediate technical indicators clearly are
overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

International events will continue to impact equity markets,
notably events in Iraq and Ukraine. Purchasing Manager’s
indices for China and Europe also will be watched closely.

The Bottom Line

Equity markets currently are overbought and vulnerable to a
correction. However, signs of an intermediate peak have yet to
appear. Caution is recommended, particularly in economic
sensitive sectors.

Special Free Services available
through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing
seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data
base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate
cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions
offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca
and www.equityclock.com
are for information only. They should not be
considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned
securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be
accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are
Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.
All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the
authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs
Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations
found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in
the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs
Management (Canada) Inc.

Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not
held personally or in HAC.

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC June
20^th 2014